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November 01, 2023 04:34 PM

Orlando Figes, historian and author, explains how Russia's past shaped its present

Sophie Baker
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    Orlando_Figes_WPS_2023_i.jpg
    Orlando Figes

    What would a Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. Presidential election mean for Ukraine? How sustainable is Russia's spend on defense? And how will the relationship between Russia and Iran play out?

    These were just some of the unanswered questions asked of Orlando Figes, historian, professor emeritus and author of "The Story of Russia," at the Pensions & Investments WorldPensionSummit, held in The Hague, Netherlands last month.

    Figes gave an overview of how narratives from Russia's past have shaped its present, and, following a lengthy Q&A session, delegates had more questions still. As such, Figes agreed to answer the questions we did not get to on the day. Questions and answers have been edited for style, clarity and conciseness.

    Q: In your presentation, you mentioned Putin is counting on a Trump victory in the upcoming U.S. Presidential election. If that happens, what is your view on Europe, the EU? Will say France, Germany and the U.K. stand against Putin, without the U.S., or give up on Ukraine?

    A: I think the EU will continue to support Ukraine — at least I hope they do and (Josep Borrell, high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy) Borrell has signaled that commitment very clearly recently — but the U.S. provides by far the largest share of aid and without that the Ukrainians will not be able to continue for long.

    Q: The West made overtures to Ukraine and Georgia, only to abandon them when Russia extracted retribution in 2008 and then again in 2014. Will this time be any different?

    A: I agree with you — the West was very weak in response to Russian aggression in 2008 and 2014. It has woken up to the danger now but I fear that Western unity and resolve to help Ukraine is not strong or durable enough to defeat Russia.

    Q: How will the relationship between Iran and Russia play out? What are the risks and mutual interests?

    A: The Gaza crisis will consolidate the Russian-Iranian alliance, which is already strong. If Hezbollah gets involved we are entering a whole new dimension of the anti-Western coalition led by Russia and Iran.

    Q: How should the West act in both conflicts, in your opinion, to successfully "win" or at least weaken Putin?

    A: The West must continue to support the Ukrainians until they are in a position to negotiate a peace with Russia that will be acceptable to them. Any peace deal will need to be passed by the Ukrainian Rada or a referendum — both of which would take at least a year. However, I do not believe a peace with Putin or his regime is possible. As with Hamas, a ceasefire would just enable him to regroup and rearm his forces for another attack on Ukraine later on.

    Q: Regarding the economic system of Russia: Is their level of defense spending sustainable? Particularly if Europe's reliance on Russian energy supplies may be less than Putin predicted.

    A: At the moment around 40% of Russian public spending is on the war. It could go higher without much danger for the regime. The population has been primed for "sacrifice" — as it was by Stalin before the war against the Nazis — a memory he often draws upon.

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