The Changing Face of Emerging Markets Investing
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November 25, 2019 01:00 AM

The Changing Face of Emerging Markets Investing

By P&I Content Solutions
This content was paid for by an advertiser and created in collaboration with P&I Content Solutions.
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    Altaf Kassam
    EMEA Head of Investment Strategy and Research

    Gaurav Mallik
    Senior Vice President, 
    Chief Portfolio Strategist

    The equity opportunity set for emerging markets has changed dramatically over the past three decades, but institutional investors have generally not put those changes to good use in their portfolios.

    When the MSCI EM Index was first introduced in 1988, it represented the economies of 10 countries. Each of these could be roughly characterized as underdeveloped but growing rapidly. Today, 31 years later, the index represents 26 economies. What’s more, about 60% of global gross domestic product and about 70% of global GDP growth are attributable to EM.

    But an analysis of data from eVestment by State Street Global Advisors indicated that EM makes up only about 6% of institutional investors’ equity allocation, a level that seems out of line with the influence of EM in global markets, according to Altaf Kassam, State Street’s EMEA head of investment strategy and research.

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    “Even as the composition and characteristics of emerging markets change, we believe one thing remains consistent,” he said. “Emerging markets continue to offer opportunity for investors to add value to their equity portfolios. We believe that as emerging markets continue to develop and become more integrated into global markets, their influence is likely to increase.”

    Indexing in emerging markets
    Indexed investments in emerging markets have been gaining popularity in recent years. And market cap-weighted indexed strategies can be helpful as a source of liquidity. Cap-weighted funds also have virtually unlimited capacity and relatively low cost.

    “We believe indexed investments have an important role to play in investors’ overall allocation to emerging markets,” said Gaurav Mallik, chief portfolio strategist at State Street Global Advisors.

    EM index managers typically face a range of headwinds, including higher trading costs and other market frictions, which can cause EM index funds to lag their respective benchmarks, he said. Best-in-class EM index managers, however, are able to compensate for these challenges through portfolio construction and efficient trading, especially around index rebalancing periods.
    A traditional approach to portfolio construction has been the core-satellite construct, in which investors complement a pure market-capitalization indexed core with high active-share, fundamental stock-selection satellite strategies.

    That said, many investors could also benefit from allocating to enhanced strategies at the core of their EM portfolio. Enhanced strategies are active approaches that use very low tracking error to seek a modest amount of outperformance while aiming to replicate the risk characteristics of their reference indexes. They pursue this modest outperformance by taking very small active positions that are away from the benchmark.

    “Building an EM-focused enhanced strategy into the core of an EM equity portfolio can not only help reduce lag versus the benchmark, it can also help keep both risk and return characteristics consistent with a core allocation,” Mallik said.

    The opportunity in EM inefficiencies
    Developed market and EM factor spreads suggest that emerging markets are relatively less efficient, which means that specific investment themes are more easily exploitable in EM than they are in developed markets.

    “Our analysis of smart beta factor spreads illustrates these inefficiencies,” Kassam said. “In particular, EM small caps present a ripe opportunity for active management to drive outperformance.”

    The size and variability of the EM small-cap universe yield fertile ground for a range of effective approaches to active stock selection. With more than 2,000 securities, the level of information flow and analyst coverage among EM small caps varies from virtually nonexistent — 25% of the MSCI EM Small-Cap Index universe has no analyst coverage ― to a level of coverage most often associated with large-cap developed market stocks. The median MSCI EM index small-cap stock is followed by only three analysts. In this environment, investors may derive value from active quantitative approaches that are able to exploit the full breadth of the small-cap universe to construct their portfolios.

    China also invites attention because its A-share stock ownership is concentrated in the hands of retail investors. In general, A-shares tend to provide investors with more access to domestic consumption themes. Retail investor ownership should also lead to a less efficient A-shares market, which in turn may create greater alpha-generating opportunities for active managers.

    For that reason “we don’t think investors should stray too far from a broad, active approach to China, which provides flexibility for managers to allocate dynamically across sectors, capitalization buckets and stocks,” Mallik said.

    An ‘optimized’ EM portfolio allocation
    “Our optimized EM portfolio includes enhanced strategies alongside indexing at the core,” Mallik said. “In the satellite sleeve of the portfolio, we’ve included specific allocations to small-cap and Chinese equities, as well as highly active, higher tracking-error strategies. Based on these assumptions, we ran through a range of portfolio combinations to find an EM portfolio that was optimized for the highest information ratio,” meaning the ratio of excess returns to active risk.

    A sample optimized portfolio, shown in Table 1, has an active return of 1.16%, a tracking error of 0.80% and an information ratio of 1.44.

    Table 1

    “By relaxing some of our constraints, we also identified some sample portfolios with higher levels of tracking error and greater return potential,” Mallik said. Those portfolios are shown in Table 2.

    “As we increase tracking error, we tend to allocate away from index and enhanced strategies and toward highly active, small-cap and China strategies,” he said.

    For example, sample Portfolio 2 in Table 2 targets around 2% tracking error to the EM benchmark.

    Currency considerations
    Emerging markets currency exposure is a byproduct of investing in EM equities; it impacts investor return and introduces additional risk. For example, buying the MSCI EM index includes exposure to an equity market capitalization-weighted basket of EM currencies versus an investor’s home (or base) currency. This can have a substantial impact on returns. In fact, over the last 20 years, MSCI EM returns in U.S. dollars have regularly underperformed MSCI EM localized returns.

    Institutional investors can hedge currency risk passively, but hedging costs can be prohibitively high ― ranging from 2% to 4.5% per year, depending on the home currency of the investor. Most investors choose not to hedge EM currency risk within their EM equity portfolios, citing these high costs.
    “We believe that investors shouldn’t dismiss downside risk management simply because it’s expensive on average,” Kassam said. “Our research shows that currencies ― which are very expensive to long-run fair value, estimated using a purchasing-power parity equilibrium model ― tend to have much greater crash risk.”

    Currencies also have wildly different hedging costs, and those costs change over time. By carefully considering each EM currency to balance several factors ― including its expected downside risk, the cost of hedging and volatility ― and using this assessment to focus hedging efforts, it is possible to better control downside EM currency risk.
     
    Table 2

    Building blocks
    As emerging markets have developed, investors have many building blocks to choose from: index, enhanced, fundamental active, quantitative, thematic, regional, country-specific and so on.

    “We recognize that a final equity portfolio involves a wide range of considerations that are unique to each investor, including liquidity needs, fees and risk tolerance,” Kassam said. “These ideas ― indexing, enhanced strategies, active management and optimization ― should give institutional investors some of the tools they need to start thinking about portfolios equipped for the rising influence of emerging markets.” •

    Glossary
    Emerging Markets: 23 emerging economies: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
    Per Capita GDP: Per capita GDP is a measure of the total output of a country that takes the gross domestic product (GDP) and divides it by the number of people in that country. The per capita GDP is especially useful when comparing one country to another, because it shows the relative performance of the countries.
    State Street Global Advisors Worldwide Entities: Australia: State Street Global Advisors, Australia, Limited (ABN 42 003 914 225) is the holder of an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL Number 238276). Registered office: Level 17, 420 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia, T:+612 9240-7600 F:+612 9240-7611. Belgium: State Street Global Advisors Belgium, Chaussée de La Hulpe 120, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. T:+32 2 663 2036, F:+32 2 672 2077. SSGA Belgium is a branch office of State Street Global Advisors Limited. State Street Global Advisors Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. Canada: State Street Global Advisors, Ltd., 770 Sherbrooke Street West, Suite 1200 Montreal, Quebec, H3A 1G1. T:+514 282 2400 and 30 Adelaide Street East Ste 500, Toronto, Ontario M5C 3G6. T:+647 775 5900. Dubai: State Street Bank and Trust Company (Representative Office), Boulevard Plaza 1, 17th Floor, Office 1703 Near Dubai Mall & Burj Khalifa, P.O Box 26838, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. T:+971 (0)4-4372800, F:+971 (0)4-4372818. France: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, Paris branch is a branch of State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland with company number 145221, authorised and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland, and whose registered office is at 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited, Paris Branch, is registered in France with company number RCS Nanterre 832 734 602 and whose office is at Immeuble Défense Plaza, 23-25 rue DelarivièreLefoullon, 92064 Paris La Défense Cedex, France. T:(+33) 1 44 45 40 00. F:(+33) 1 44 45 41 92. Germany: State Street Global Advisors GmbH, Brienner Strasse 59, D-80333 Munich. Authorised and regulated by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (“BaFin”). Registered with the Register of Commerce Munich HRB 121381. T:+49 (0)89-55878-400 F:+49 (0)89-55878-440. www.ssga.com Hong Kong: State Street Global Advisors Asia Limited, 68/F, Two International Finance Centre, 8 Finance Street, Central, Hong Kong. T:+852 2103-0288 F:+852 2103-0200 Japan: State Street Global Advisors (Japan) Co., Ltd., Toranomon Hills Mori Tower 25F 1-23-1 Toranomon, Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-6325 Japan. T:+81-3-4530-7380 Financial Instruments Business Operator, Kanto Local Financial Bureau (Kinsho #345), Membership: Japan Investment Advisers Association, The Investment Trust Association, Japan, Japan Securities Dealers’ Association. Ireland: State Street Global Advisors Ireland Limited is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered office address 78 Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2. Registered number 145221. T:+353 (0)1 776 3000. F:+353 (0)1 776 3300. Web: ssga.com. Italy: State Street Global Advisors Limited, Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano) is a branch of State Street Global Advisors Limited, a company registered in the UK, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), with a capital of GBP 62,350,000, and whose registered office is at 20 Churchill Place, London E14 5HJ. State Street Global Advisors Limited, Milan Branch (Sede Secondaria di Milano), is registered in Italy with company number 06353340968-R.E.A. 1887090 and VAT number 06353340968 and whose office is at Via dei Bossi, 4-20121 Milano, Italy T:+39 02 32066 100 F:+39 02 32066 155. Netherlands: State Street Global Advisors Netherlands, Apollo Building, 7th floor Herikerbergweg 29 1101 CN Amsterdam, Netherlands. T:+31 20 7181701. SSGA Netherlands is a branch office of State Street Global Advisors Limited. State Street Global Advisors Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. Singapore: State Street Global Advisors Singapore Limited, 168, Robinson Road, #33-01 Capital Tower, Singapore 068912 (Company Reg. No: 200002719D, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore). T: +65 68267555 F: +65 6826-7501 www.SSGA.com. Switzerland: State Street Global Advisors AG, Beethovenstr. 19, CH-8027 Zurich. Authorised and regulated by the Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht (“FINMA”). Registered with the Register of Commerce Zurich CHE105.078.458. T:+41 (0)44 245 70 00. F:+41 (0)44 245 70 16. www.ssga.com. United Kingdom: State Street Global Advisors Limited. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in England. Registered No. 2509928. VAT No. 5776591 81. Registered office: 20 Churchill Place, Canary Wharf, London, E14 5HJ. T:+020 3395 6000. F:+020 3395 6350. United States: State Street Global Advisors, 1 Iron Street, Boston, MA 02210-1641. T:+1 617 786 3000.

    Important Risk Information
    The views expressed in this material are the views of Altaf Kassam and Gaurav Mallik through the period ended September 23, 2019 and are subject to change based on market and other conditions.
    This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.
    The information provided does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your tax and financial advisor.
    All material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and State Street shall have no liability for decisions based on such information.
    The trademarks and service marks referenced herein are the property of their respective owners. Third party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the data and have no liability for damages of any kind relating to the use of such data.
    The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA’s express written consent.
    ©2019 State Street Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
    2740176.1.1.GBL.RTL
    Expiration Date: 9/30/2020

    This sponsored content is published by the P&I Content Solutions Group, a division of Pensions & Investments. The content was not produced by the editors of Pensions & Investments and www.pionline.com and does not represent the views of the publication or its parent company, Crain Communications Inc.





    SSGA logo


    State Street Global Advisors
    1 Iron Street
    Boston, MA 02110
    Gaurav Mallik
    Chief Portfolio Strategist
    617-664-7142
    [email protected]
    www.ssga.com

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