We asked executives in the money management industry what they think will be the most and least likely headlines to grace the pages of Pensions & Investments in 2021. The results were mixed.
Evan Brown, head of multiasset strategy at UBS Asset Management
Most likely: "Value stocks post biggest annual outperformance of growth since dot-com bubble burst"
Least likely: "Biden places big tariffs on French wine, Canadian dairy, citing longstanding unfair trade practices"
OR "Federal Reserve delivers surprise rate hike"
Silvia Dall'Angelo, senior economist at Federated Hermes Inc.:
Most likely: "USD hits its lowest level since 2014"
Least likely: "Britain to adopt the euro as its sole legal tender in 2021"
Paul Gruenwald, global chief economist at S&P Global Ratings:
Most likely: "Vaccine a roaring success"
Least likely: "The inflation blowout"
Michael Herzum, head of multiasset strategy at Union Investment Gmbh:
Most likely: "Crowd of 60,000 celebrate the summer Olympics opening in Japan's Olympic Stadium"
Least likely: "Angela Merkel named next coach of German national football team"
OR "Fed hikes rates by 50 basis points after inflation jumps to 4%"
Thijs Knaap, senior strategist at APG Asset Management:
Most likely: "Inflation thought to be much higher than official statistics"
Least likely: "Calm financial markets go through year exactly as predicted"
Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management:
Most likely: "Markets react to latest COVID news"
Least likely: "Balanced budgets in sight"
David Riley, chief investment strategist at BlueBay Asset Management:
Most likely: "S&P to 4,000"
Least likely: "ECB hikes rates"
John Roe, head of multiasset funds at Legal & General Investment Management:
Most likely: "Let's party like it's 1999" OR "No ifs, no buts, go nuts" OR "Super-China goes ballistic, U.K. is atrocious"
Least likely: "U.S. and China set a new course"
Nathan Sheets, chief economist and head of global macroeconomic research at PGIM Fixed Income:
Most likely: "Growth rebounds in second half of the year"
Least likely: "Fed hikes rates"