The New York City Retirement Systems posted a preliminary unaudited return of 4.4% net of fees for the fiscal year ended June 30.
The assumed rate of return is 7%.
The return information was contained in an analysis of the current fiscal year budget for New York City published Monday by Scott M. Stringer, the city comptroller and fiduciary of the five pension funds within the city pension system.
The budget analysis report didn't discuss investments or offer details on the pension system's assets.
According to the comptroller's website, the pension system had $211 billion in assets as of May 31, representing a recovery from the depths of the coronavirus' impact on the system.
On March 31, the pension system had assets of $194.5 billion, down from $218 billion on Dec. 31, 2019.
The shortfall in earnings below the assumed rate of return will require additional contributions from the city for the 2022, 2023 and 2024 fiscal years, the report said. "A failure by the federal government to provide adequate fiscal relief to state and local governments could upend the state budget – and by extension, the city's," the report said. New York state "has threatened to reduce local aid by as much as 20% if Congress does not appropriate additional, unrestricted aid to states and local governments."
Another risk to city budget forecasting is "the trajectory of the coronavirus itself," said the report, warning that the city tax base could suffer long-term damage if there was "another round of business shutdowns and stay-at-home orders" even if a vaccine is eventually developed.