RiskWatch provides recent data on volatility and correlation, the two components of risk, for U.S. and global equity and fixed-income markets. The equity data are derived from Axioma’s medium-horizon fundamental risk model. The first set of tables is designed to capture U.S. industries, countries and currencies with the highest and lowest levels of volatility and how that component of risk has changed since the end of the prior quarter. The highest and lowest correlated countries within developed and emerging markets are also highlighted. Another chart illustrates how currency volatility has been a major driver of risk in multicountry benchmarks as well as a cause for concern in individual countries. The fixed-income data, detailed in the multiasset-class section, consist of government yields, investment-grade and subinvestment-grade spreads for the U.S. and eurozone as well as correlations between those asset classes. Data are as of Dec. 31, 2014.
Predicted volatility by industry |
U.S. market |
|
Energy equip. & svcs. | 24.6 | 10.8 | Marine | 23.5 | 7.2 | Oil, gas & consumable fuels | 23.1 | 11 | Airlines | 22.6 | 5.9 | Biotechnology | 19.5 | 3.4 | Metals & mining | 18.1 | 4.4 | Construction & engineering | 17.9 | 5.5 | Semiconductors & equip. | 17.1 | 4.7 | Automobiles | 17 | 3.5 | Office electronics | 16.9 | 3.7 |
| | |
Water utilities | 13.2 | 2.7 | Insurance | 13.2 | 2.9 | Diversified financial svcs. | 13.1 | 2.7 | Hotels, restaurants & leisure | 13 | 2.9 | Health-care providers & svcs. | 12.9 | 3.1 | Food products | 12.8 | 3 | Thrifts & mortgage finance | 12.5 | 2.5 | Food & staples retailing | 12.2 | 2.8 | Tobacco | 12.1 | 2.6 | Household products | 12.1 | 2.9 |
|
|
Index volatility |
 |
|
Predicted volatility by currency* |
Developed markets | |
Japanese yen | 8.7 | 2.6 | New Zealand dollar | 8.6 | 1.2 | Norwegian krone | 8.3 | 1.7 | Australian dollar | 8 | 1.4 | Swedish krona | 7.4 | 0.5 | Swiss franc | 7.3 | 2 | South Korean won | 6.7 | 1.7 | Euro | 6.5 | 1.9 | Danish krone | 6.5 | 1.9 | British pound | 5.6 | 0.9 |
| | Emerging markets** | |
Russian ruble | 21.5 | 11.5 | Brazilian real | 12.9 | 4.3 | Colombian peso | 10.7 | 3.7 | Turkish lira | 10.4 | 1.5 | South African rand | 10.1 | 1.6 | Hungarian forint | 9.4 | 1.4 | Chilean peso | 8.6 | 0.6 | Polish zloty | 8.4 | 2.2 | Mexican peso | 7.4 | 1.3 | Czech koruna | 7.2 | 1.7 |
|
|
Predicted volatility by country* |
Developed markets |
|
Greece | 38.6 | 13.4 | Portugal | 23 | 2.1 | Ireland | 22.6 | 3.8 | Italy | 18.8 | 2.4 | Japan | 18.8 | 4.6 |
| | |
New Zealand | 11.6 | 2.4 | South Korea | 11.8 | 2.2 | Canada | 11.9 | 3.6 | Singapore | 12.4 | 3 | Switzerland | 13.5 | 3.4 |
|
|
Emerging markets** |
|
United Arab Emirates | 29.4 | 8.4 | Egypt | 24.2 | 5.3 | Russian Federation | 19 | 3.1 | Turkey | 18.4 | 2.6 | Pakistan | 17.8 | 0.8 |
| | |
Morocco | 11.4 | 2.3 | Czech Republic | 11.7 | 2.8 | South Africa | 12 | 2.7 | Hungary | 12.3 | 2.4 | Chile | 13 | 2.5 |
|
|
Country-country correlations** |
Developed markets |
|
France | Germany | 0.75 | Spain | Italy | 0.73 | France | Netherlands | 0.72 | France | Belgium | 0.7 | Germany | Netherlands | 0.68 |
| | |
U.S. | South Korea | -0.38 | U.S. | Singapore | -0.38 | U.S. | Denmark | -0.31 | Japan | Germany | -0.31 | U.S. | Hong Kong | -0.31 |
|
|
Emerging markets |
|
Czech Rep. | Poland | 0.35 | Mexico | Colombia | 0.32 | Chile | Peru | 0.26 | Egypt | U.A.E. | 0.26 | Poland | Hungary | 0.26 |
| | |
Russia | Colombia | -0.3 | India | Brazil | -0.27 | China | U.A.E. | -0.24 | China | Colombia | -0.24 | India | Chile | -0.24 |
|
|
Energy market extra-market volatility** |
Oil-related industry extra-market risk |
 |
| Multiasset-class data |
Risk |
|
U.S. T-Note 10-year (yield) | 2.17% | -33 | 0.59% | 0.00% | U.S. IG (spread) | 217 bps | 48 | 20.04% | 4.35% | U.S. HY (spread) | 517 bps | 105 | 24.21% | 5.00% | EUR Gov’t 10-year (yield) | 0.54% | -40 | 0.45% | -0.04% | EUR IG (spread) | 117 bps | -11 | 17.72% | 0.61% | EUR HY (spread) | 328 bps | 29 | 24.24% | 4.47% |
|
|
Asset-class correlations |
|
U.S. T-Note 10-year (yield) | 1.00 | -0.35 | -0.47 | 0.63 | -0.18 | -0.11 | 0.47 | 0.34 | 0.32 | U.S. IG (spread) | | 1 | 0.76 | -0.26 | 0.27 | 0.23 | -0.19 | -0.07 | -0.3 | U.S. HY (spread) | | | 1.00 | -0.30 | 0.30 | 0.23 | -0.28 | -0.14 | -0.41 | EUR Gov’t 10-year (yield) | | | | 1.00 | -0.18 | -0.14 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 0.23 | EUR IG (spread) | | | | | 1.00 | 0.28 | -0.13 | -0.04 | -0.26 | EUR HY (spread) | | | | | | 1.00 | -0.08 | 0.00 | -0.19 |
|
Emerging markets sections include only countries in the FTSE Emerging Markets index. *Numeraire: U.S. dollar. **In excess of the global market. |
Source: Axioma |