RiskWatch provides recent data on volatility and correlation, the two components of risk, for U.S. and global equity and fixed-income markets. The equity data are derived from Axioma’s medium-horizon fundamental risk model. The first set of tables is designed to capture U.S. industries, countries and currencies with the highest and lowest levels of volatility and how that component of risk has changed since the end of the prior quarter. The highest and lowest correlated countries within developed and emerging markets are also highlighted. Another chart illustrates how currency volatility has been a major driver of risk in multicountry benchmarks as well as a cause for concern in individual countries. The fixed-income data, detailed in the multiasset-class section, consist of government yields, investment-grade and subinvestment-grade spreads for the U.S. and eurozone as well as correlations between those asset classes. Data are as of Dec. 31, 2013.
Predicted volatility by industry
U.S. market
10 most volatile
Current
Change
Marine
19.4
0.0
Household durables
17.9
-1.7
Airlines
16.9
-1.3
Building products
16.5
-2.4
Automobiles
16.2
-2.7
Metals & mining
16.0
-3.1
Biotechnology
15.2
-0.8
Construction & engineering
14.8
-1.7
Energy equipment & services
14.7
-1.6
REITs
14.5
-2.1
10 least volatile
Current
Change
Tobacco
10.1
-1.2
Pharmaceuticals
10.8
-1.3
Independent power producers
11.0
-1.0
Food & staples retailing
11.0
-1.8
Household products
11.0
-1.0
Health-care prov. & svcs.
11.0
-1.4
Food products
11.1
-1.3
Water utilities
11.1
-1.1
Health-care equip. & supp.
11.1
-1.5
Divers. telecomm. services
11.3
-1.6
Index volatility
Predicted volatility by currency*
Developed markets
10 most volatile
Current
Change
Norwegian krone
10.7
-1.2
New Zealand dollar
10.2
-1.3
Swedish krona
10.2
-1.2
Japanese yen
9.2
-2.6
Australian dollar
8.7
-1.3
Swiss franc
7.5
-1.4
Euro
6.5
-1.3
Danish krone
6.5
-1.3
British pound
6.3
-1.1
Canadian dollar
5.7
-0.9
Emerging markets**
10 most volatile
Current
Change
South African rand
11.7
-2.5
Brazilian real
10.6
-1.1
Hungarian forint
10.5
-2.3
Indian rupee
10.5
-1.4
Polish zloty
10.0
-2.8
Mexican peso
9.7
-1.8
Turkish lira
9.1
0.0
Czech koruna
8.7
-1.0
Chilean peso
7.4
-0.4
Russian ruble
7.2
-1.1
Predicted volatility by country*
Developed markets
5 most volatile
Current
Change
Greece
27.1
-2.8
Ireland
19.7
1.4
Japan
17.4
-3.2
Portugal
16.2
-3.8
Spain
16.0
-2.3
5 least volatile
Current
Change
Canada
9.5
-2.6
New Zealand
10.7
-2.2
South Korea
11.2
-2.6
Singapore
11.5
-2.7
United Kingdom
11.8
-2.9
Emerging markets**
10 most volatile
Current
Change
Egypt
21.6
-5.9
Turkey
20.4
-2.0
Thailand
20.3
-3.1
U.A.E
19.4
-3.6
Indonesia
19.4
-4.9
10 least volatile
Current
Change
South Africa
10.8
-2.0
Hungary
11.0
-2.8
Czech Republic
11.2
-2.5
Malaysia
11.5
-3.4
Brazil
12.0
-2.7
Country-country correlations**
Developed markets
Highest correlations
Current
France
Germany
0.7
France
Netherlands
0.7
Spain
Italy
0.7
France
Belgium
0.7
Germany
Netherlands
0.7
Lowest correlations
Current
U.S.
South Korea
-0.5
Japan
Germany
-0.4
U.S.
Singapore
-0.4
U.S.
Hong Kong
-0.4
Japan
Belgium
-0.4
Emerging markets
Highest correlations
Current
Thailand
Indonesia
0.3
Czech Rep.
Hungary
0.3
Czech Rep.
Poland
0.3
Malaysia
Pakistan
0.2
Chile
Peru
0.2
Lowest correlations
Current
South Africa
Thailand
-0.2
Taiwan
Turkey
-0.2
India
Colombia
-0.2
India
Brazil
-0.2
Russian Fed.
Philippines
-0.20
Emerging markets currency volatility
Multiasset-class data
Risk
Level
Change (bps)
Standard deviation
Change
U.S. T-Note 10-year (yield)
2.65%
31
0.75%
0.02%
U.S. IG (spread)
178 bps
-29
11.72%
-0.09%
U.S. HY (spread)
378 bps
-64
17.56%
-0.77%
EUR Gov’t 10-year (yield)
1.94%
14
0.57%
0.00%
EUR IG (spread)
153 bps
-42
21.30%
-1.69%
EUR HY (spread)
310 bps
-78
16.52%
-0.32%
Asset-class correlations
U.S. 10Y
U.S. IG
U.S. HY
EU Gov't 10Y
EUR IG
EUR HY
Russell 1000
Russell 2000
FTSE
U.S. T-Note 10-year (yield)
1
-0.23
-0.39
0.55
-0.15
-0.14
0.05
0.06
0.11
U.S. IG (spread)
1
0.7
-0.21
0.28
0.41
-0.2
-0.17
-0.32
U.S. HY (spread)
1
-0.21
0.28
0.4
-0.24
-0.21
-0.34
EUR Gov’t 10-year (yield)
1
-0.23
-0.24
0.14
0.14
0.12
EUR IG (spread)
1
0.61
-0.06
-0.03
-0.32
EUR HY (spread)
1
-0.15
-0.13
-0.4
Emerging markets sections include only countries in the FTSE Emerging Markets index. *Numeraire: U.S. dollar. **In excess of the global market.