January 07, 2013 12:00 AM

The road ahead: Predictions for 2013 by key industry strategists

Data for 2012 are as of Dec. 31 unless otherwise noted.

	Timothy Hooper Chief economist, TIAA-CREF	Jim McDonald Chief strategist, Northern Trust	James Paulsen Chief strategist, Wells Capital Management	A. Gary Shilling President, A. Gary Shilling & Co.	J.P. Morgan strategists*	2012 actual
S&P 500 total return	Higher than 2012	High single digits	> 20%	-40.0%	7.5%	15.89%
10-year Treasury yield	1.8 to 2%	1.6%	3 to 3.5%	1.0%	3.0%	1.76%
CPI	2.3%	2.0%	2.5%	1.5% or less	2.3%	1.77%1
GDP	2.2%	2.2%	2.5 to 3%	-0.6%	2.3%	4.3%2
Unemployment rate	7.5%	7.3%	6.9%	9.3%	N/A	7.7%3
Price of oil per barrel**	$85 to $90	$85 to $90	$90	$70 to $80	N/A	$91.82
Euro vs. dollar	N/A	$1.20 to $1.30	N.A.	<$1.30	N/A	$1.32
Odds of recession	No chance	Low	<10%	66.7%	N/A
*David Shairp, global strategist, asset management solutions; Anthony Werley, chief portfolio strategist, endowments and foundations group; Michael Feser, head of quantitative research and portfolio management and global strategist, asset management solutions.
**West Texas intermediate.
Notes: 1 For the 12 months as of Nov. 30; 2 For the 12 months as of Sept. 30; 3 As of Nov. 30.