Lower growth, less inflation expected in 2020
Real gross domestic product and inflation are expected to slow or remain constant in 2020 compared with estimates made for 2019. GDP growth is expected to be highest in China, according to J.P. Morgan's 2020 Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions, at 4.4%, year-over-year, but that is lower than estimates from the year before.
Growth in the U.S. is expected to tick up slightly to 1.8% from 1.75%; however, actual numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis show that real U.S. GDP grew 2.1% over the 12 months ended Sept. 30. The U.S. BEA based its growth numbers on 2012 dollars, where J.P. Morgan's assumptions use 2018 dollars as a baseline.
Inflation is also expected to be lower this year in most economic regions. Inflation in the U.S. and U.K. are forecast to be flat at 2%, while China, and consequently the emerging markets are expected to see lower inflation.