China's GDP growth seen slowing this year

China's GDP grew during the first quarter by 4.8% year-over-year. This comes on top of an 18.3% increase in the year-ago period as the country emerged from COVID-19 lockdowns.

However, starting in March, the government has implemented lockdowns, including in Shanghai, that will likely hurt GDP growth. China's economy was already facing challenges, such as the uncertainty created by the war in Ukraine. Economists have reacted by lowering their 2022 GDP forecasts. For the second quarter, the consensus estimate calls for a 4.2% increase, down from March's 4.6% expectation.

For 2022, private economists predict a 5% GDP increase. This is above the International Monetary Fund's 4.4% estimate, which it recently lowered from 4.8%.

Analysts expect India's GDP growth to surpass China's for the next several quarters. The consensus estimate for the next seven quarters has largely remained unchanged over the last month. For instance, the consensus calls for 3.9% growth in the first quarter and 13.2% in the next period, which was the same expectation last month.

Examining recent GDP rates, India's economy has grown faster than its Asian counterpart since the second quarter of 2021, with the first quarter projected as a notable exception.