Outlook 2020: Revisited

In January, P&I spoke with experts about what they expected in 2020. We're revisiting those predictions and looking ahead.

Global outlook: What we wrote: Analysts said a recession was unlikely in 2020, but the decent returns on tap from risk assets would pale beside 2019's rate-cut-driven gains.

Global outlook: What has happened: Economists said the global economy endured the shortest and deepest economic shock in history. While markets appear to have recovered, experts said investors aren't out of the woods just yet as there are still concerns about over how short-lived the rebound will be. 

Washington outlook: What we wrote: 2020 was shaping up to be a busy year in Washington as focus turned to the second phase of retirement security legislation.

Washington outlook: What has happened: Congress has been busy passing emergency legislation for economic relief from the coronavirus pandemic. While passing any legislation during an election year is difficult at best, there could be more retirement security legislation in 2020 to address the multiemployer pension crisis and economic uncertainty caused by the pandemic. 

Europe outlook: What we wrote: While they expect to avoid a risk of recession, European money managers and investors will not be free from other risks in 2020.

Europe outlook: What has happened: The coronavirus has brought about a recession in Europe, which has left European money managers with less time to cope with upcoming regulatory changes.

Asia outlook: What we wrote: Asset managers in the Asia-Pacific region will face continued pressure to cut costs in 2020 even as they ramp up operations in China.

Asia outlook: What has happened: Asia and Asian markets felt the impact of the coronavirus first. Experts say the fallout should accelerate asset allocation trends already in place among Asia-Pacific-based institutional investors as the year began.

U.S. outlook: What we wrote: In 2020, firms will increasingly look for ways to invest in technology to improve business efficiency and client services efforts.

U.S. outlook: What has happened: After a volatile first two quarters, markets appear to have recovered from the initial shock of the coronavirus pandemic, but there are still concerns as to how long the rebound will last. 

Hedge funds outlook: What we wrote: Hedge fund managers foresee more volatility and more investment opportunities in 2020.

Hedge funds outlook: What has happened: With few exceptions, only macro and managed futures hedge fund strategies produced positive performance in the first quarter and the launches of new hedge funds fell to the lowest level since the global financial crisis. 

Real estate outlook: What we wrote: Real estate could offer protection against economic dips, despite expectations of lower returns in 2020.

Real estate outlook: What has happened: In March, real estate investor Tom Barrack warned the U.S. commercial-mortgage real estate market is on the brink of collapse and predicted a "domino effect" of catastrophic economic consequences if banks and government don't take prompt action to keep borrowers from defaulting. More recently, real estate consultants and some investors are considering pressing pause on certain investments due to the coronavirus pandemic. 

Defined contribution outlook: What we wrote: Some DC sponsors are tackling financial wellness by linking retirement plans to paying off student loans or creating emergency savings. 

Defined contribution outlook: What has happened: The coronavirus has forced some defined contribution sponsors to suspend or reduce their matching programs, while many others have had  to postpone or delay new initiatives.

Investments outlook: What has happened: While cautious about a second wave of COVID-19 cases in the U.S., industry experts see some bright spots for institutions in search of investment opportunities in the second half of the year.

Credit outlook: What has happened: A number of managers are busy raising capital to take advantage of the current market dislocation impacting companies, real estate and infrastructure assets either now or in the future.