A: Oh, well, that's a great question. Where have we accumulated knowledge? An example would be the auto industry, because I started following it as a sell-side analyst 50 years ago. So I covered conglomerates, which benefited from cycles in the economy. I covered broadcasting and farm equipment, so I still like the ag world.
So take the ag world — three companies: John Deere, Case New Holland and AGCO.
The farmer in the United States is going to do about $545 billion of cash flow, crops, commodities, and a minor degree government payments. They are going to do quite well. Obviously, part of it is weather-related. Part of it is whether wheat is higher, the corn and corn is higher, the wheat or beans are higher. But the bottom line, the farmer's in good shape. What does the farmer need?
It's hard getting people to work in the fields, so you want to mechanize. An ideal world is to sit down like a drone operator and have that piece of equipment go on your 20,000 acres in Iowa, and look at the crop with lasers, and figure out whether there's a weed growing up. And hit it, as opposed to putting herbicide and pesticide down across the border of irrigation, do it on a precision basis. And you're going to see more of that precision ag, which allows the companies to have equipment to come in higher. And some of the models are changing. So we like Case New Holland. The stock is $14. There's 1.3 billion shares out. We think you'll make 50% in the next 12 months.
We think Deere is OK at $430. They've got 300 million shares, but it's got a $120 billion market cap. So we sometimes like the smaller company. AGCO is doing quite well, but we're focused on Case New Holland as an investment now. But we like the entire agricultural ecosystem.
The problem is that we have a crisis in the world, and that is food and water and energy. And the food crisis is exacerbated by the problems with getting grain out of the Ukraine and Russia.
And automobiles. We, in the world, have 1.3 billion cars. The United States has 285 million for 335 million people. China is only a fraction of that, with 1.4 billion people. The world will produce 81 million cars this year; 27 of those million will be in China, half of those will be EVs. So they are growing very rapidly. And understanding the technology of EVs — we as a world are understanding that. The holy grail for you and I is somebody at MIT coming up with fusion, somebody at the University of Hawaii coming up with it.
Independent of that, it's looking at a way to take water and make it energy. And you hope that somebody can do that, much like somebody found synthetic rubber or somebody found a vaccine for polio. These things happen, and American technology, and under the American free market system, hopefully will allow that to unfold at a very fast rate because you can't depend on parts of the world for precious materials and metals.From my point of view, you can't have an apartment building in the south Bronx and have an EV because you're not going to have a charger. You're not going to pay the price. The price of these vehicles have to come down sharply. In addition to that, you have to be able to not worry about a fire occurring with your lithium ion battery. You want to have longer range. You want to be able to charge it fast. But that's going to happen.