India's gross domestic product forecast for 2020 has been sharply lowered, while other emerging markets are faring better as the COVID-19 pandemic continues, according to new research from S&P Global Ratings.
According to the research report released Tuesday, the ratings agency forecasts average GDP among all emerging markets (excluding China) will decline 6.4% in 2020 and grow 6.2% in 2021. The 2020 forecast is 1.7 percentage points lower than S&P Global's prior macroeconomic forecast, according to the report.
That decline in forecast, however, does not reflect significant divergences between economies, the report said. India's growth forecast has dropped to -9% for 2020 from -5% in S&P Global's prior forecast, contributing 1.2 percentage points in the overall emerging markets forecast drop. India saw between an 11% and 12% decline in industrial output in July compared with the same month last year.
Other countries that saw lowered forecasts for GDP growth in 2020 were Mexico, due to very limited government stimulus, and Argentina and Colombia due to "very stringent lockdowns."