Skip to main content
MENU
Subscribe
  • Login
  • My Account
  • Logout
  • Register For Free
  • Subscribe
  • Topics
    • Alternatives
    • Artificial Intelligence
    • CIOs
    • Consultants
    • Defined Contribution
    • ESG
    • Face to Face
    • Hedge Funds
    • Industry Voices
    • Investing
    • Money Management
    • Partner Content
    • Private Credit
    • Pension Funds
    • Private Equity
    • Real Estate
    • Regulation
    • Special Reports
    • Washington
    • White Papers
  • International
    • U.K.
    • Canada
    • Europe
    • Asia
    • Australia - New Zealand
    • Middle East
    • Latin America
    • Africa
  • Rankings & Awards
    • 1,000 Largest Retirement Plans
    • Top-Performing Managers
    • Largest Money Managers
    • DC Money Managers
    • DC Record Keepers
    • Largest Hedge Fund Managers
    • World's Largest Retirement Funds
    • Best Places to Work in Money Management
    • Excellence & Innovation Awards
    • WPS Innovation Awards
    • Influential Women in Institutional Investing 2024
    • Eddy Awards
  • Resource Guides
    • Active Thematic Global Equities
    • Retirement Income
    • Fixed Income
    • Pension Risk Transfer
    • Pooled Employer Plans (PEPs)
  • ETFs
    • Latest ETF News
    • Fund Screener
    • Education Center
    • Equities
    • Fixed Income
    • Commodities
    • Actively Managed
    • Alternatives
    • ESG Rated
  • ESG
    • Latest ESG News
    • The Institutional Investor’s Guide to ESG Investing
    • ESG Sustainability - Gaining Momentum
    • ESG Investing | Industry Brief
    • Innovation in ESG Investing
    • ESG Rated ETFs
    • Divestment Database
  • Defined Contribution
    • Latest DC News
    • The Plan Sponsor's Guide to Retirement Income
    • DC Money Manager Rankings
    • DC Record Keeper Rankings
    • Innovations in DC
    • DC Plan Design: Improving Participant Outcomes
  • Searches & Hires
    • Latest Searches & Hires News
    • Searches & Hires Database
    • RFPs
  • Research Center
    • The P&I Research Center
    • Earnings Tracker
    • Endowment Returns Tracker
    • Corporate Pension Contribution Tracker
    • Pension Fund Returns Tracker
    • Pension Risk Transfer Database
  • Careers
  • Events
    • View All Conferences
    • View All Webinars
  • Print
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. ECONOMY
June 22, 2022 03:47 PM

Fed's Powell: Soft economic landing 'very challenging,' recession possible

Bloomberg
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Reprints Print
    ONLINE_190229980_AR_0_OSATJGPBTGKF.jpg
    Bloomberg
    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell

    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave his most explicit acknowledgment to date that steep rate hikes could tip the U.S. economy into recession, saying one is possible and calling a soft landing "very challenging."

    "The other risk, though, is that we would not manage to restore price stability and that we would allow this high inflation to get entrenched in the economy," Mr. Powell told lawmakers Wednesday. "We can't fail on that task. We have to get back to 2% inflation."

    Mr. Powell was testifying before the Senate Banking Committee during the first of two days of congressional hearings. In his opening remarks, Mr. Powell said officials "anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate," to cool the hottest price pressures in 40 years.

    Related Article
    Fed warns of inflation, Russian invasion as financial risks
    Powell signals rate hike in House testimony

    "Inflation has obviously surprised to the upside over the past year, and further surprises could be in store. We therefore will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook," he said.

    Mr. Powell's remarks reinforced comments at a news conference last week after he and his colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee raised their benchmark lending rate 75 basis points — the biggest increase since 1994 — to a range of 1.5% to 1.75%.

    While Mr. Powell told reporters then that another 75-basis-point increase, or a 50-basis-point move, was on the table for the next meeting in late July, Wednesday's text made no reference to the size of future rate hikes. Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller said June 18 that he would support a 75-basis-point rate increase in July should economic data come in as he expects.

    "We understand the hardship high inflation is causing," Mr. Powell said Wednesday. "We are strongly committed to bringing inflation back down, and we are moving expeditiously to do so."

    Investors expect the U.S. central bank to keep raising rates to a peak of about 3.6% by the middle of next year, according to interest-rate futures.

    "Financial conditions have tightened and priced in a string of rate increases and that's appropriate," Mr. Powell said in response to a question following his opening remarks. "We need to go ahead and have them."

    The Labor Department's consumer price index rose 8.6% last month from a year earlier, a four-decade high. University of Michigan data showed U.S. households expect inflation of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years, the most since 2008 and up from 3% in May.

    The rising cost of living has angered Americans and hurt the standing of President Joe Biden's Democrats with voters ahead of November congressional midterm elections.

    Mr. Powell heard sharp criticism of his performance on inflation, especially from Republicans, with Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby telling him that "the Federal Reserve failed the American people."

    Fed officials have admitted that they were too slow to tighten and are now trying to front-load rate increases in the most aggressive policy pivot in decades.

    While a recession isn't in the Fed's forecast, economists are increasingly flagging the likelihood of a downturn sometime in the next two years.

    Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley said in a Bloomberg Opinion column Wednesday that a recession is "inevitable" within the next 12 to 18 months. An economist at the Fed, Michael Kiley, said in a paper Tuesday that the risk of a large increase in the unemployment rate is above 50% over the next four quarters, based on a simulation incorporating inflation data, unemployment, corporate bond yields and Treasury yields.

    "The American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy," Mr. Powell said in his opening remarks.

    While he said he did not see the likelihood of a recession as particularly elevated right now, he said that it was "certainly a possibility. It is not our intended outcome at all," noting that events in the past few months have made it harder for the Fed to lower inflation while sustaining a strong labor market.

    A soft landing "is our goal. It is going to be very challenging. It has been made significantly more challenging by the events of the last few months — thinking there of the war and of commodities prices and further problems with supply chains."

    Concern over the outlook for global growth has seen oil prices ease back somewhat in the past few days, potentially providing some relief to sky-high gasoline prices. At the same time, U.S. hiring remains strong and consumption indicators suggest demand is holding up despite the blow to real disposable income from higher inflation.

    Mr. Powell called the labor market "extremely tight."

    "The tightening in financial conditions that we have seen in recent months should continue to temper growth and help bring demand into better balance with supply," he said.

    Related Article
    Inflation a boon for portfolio values, Milken speakers say, but risks remain
    Inflation, recession on top of minds at Milken conference
    Recommended for You
    Photos of U.S. Treasury bonds and U.S. dollars
    Investors react to Moody's U.S. credit-rating cut
    Philip Jefferson listening with his hand under his chin.
    Tariffs could disrupt progress on inflation, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson says
    basket of groceries
    Inflation benign in April, but tariff-related price impacts loom in coming months
    Sponsored
    White Papers
    The State of Lifetime Income Report
    The Next Wave of LDI Evolution
    Retirement security to future income wins, TIAA brings you the latest financial…
    U.S. Public Funds Top Performers: Q2 2024
    Generative AI Investing: Opportunities at a Key Tech Inflection Point
    Research for Institutional Money Management: Advancing Physical Risk Modelling,…
    View More
    Sponsored Content
    Partner Content
    The Industrialization of ESG Investment
    For institutional investors, ETFs can make meeting liquidity needs easier
    Gold: the most effective commodity investment
    2021 Investment Outlook | Investing Beyond the Pandemic: A Reset for Portfolios
    Ten ways retirement plan professionals add value to plan sponsors
    Gold: an efficient hedge
    View More
    E-MAIL NEWSLETTERS

    Sign up and get the best of News delivered straight to your email inbox, free of charge. Choose your news – we will deliver.

    Subscribe Today
    October 23, 2023 page one

    Get access to the news, research and analysis of events affecting the retirement and institutional money management businesses from a worldwide network of reporters and editors.

    Subscribe
    Connect With Us
    • RSS
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • LinkedIn

    Our Mission

    To consistently deliver news, research and analysis to the executives who manage the flow of funds in the institutional investment market.

    About Us

    Main Office
    685 Third Avenue
    Tenth Floor
    New York, NY 10017-4036

    Chicago Office
    130 E. Randolph St.
    Suite 3200
    Chicago, IL 60601

    Contact Us

    Careers at Crain

    About Pensions & Investments

     

    Advertising
    • Media Kit
    • P&I Custom Content
    • P&I Careers | Post a Job
    • Reprints & Permissions
    Resources
    • Subscribe
    • Newsletters
    • FAQ
    • P&I Research Center
    • Site map
    • Staff Directory
    Legal
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Request
    Pensions & Investments
    Copyright © 1996-2025. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • Topics
      • Alternatives
      • Artificial Intelligence
      • CIOs
      • Consultants
      • Defined Contribution
      • ESG
      • Face to Face
      • Hedge Funds
      • Industry Voices
      • Investing
      • Money Management
      • Partner Content
      • Private Credit
      • Pension Funds
      • Private Equity
      • Real Estate
      • Regulation
      • Special Reports
      • Washington
      • White Papers
    • International
      • U.K.
      • Canada
      • Europe
      • Asia
      • Australia - New Zealand
      • Middle East
      • Latin America
      • Africa
    • Rankings & Awards
      • 1,000 Largest Retirement Plans
      • Top-Performing Managers
      • Largest Money Managers
      • DC Money Managers
      • DC Record Keepers
      • Largest Hedge Fund Managers
      • World's Largest Retirement Funds
      • Best Places to Work in Money Management
      • Excellence & Innovation Awards
      • WPS Innovation Awards
      • Influential Women in Institutional Investing 2024
      • Eddy Awards
    • Resource Guides
      • Active Thematic Global Equities
      • Retirement Income
      • Fixed Income
      • Pension Risk Transfer
      • Pooled Employer Plans (PEPs)
    • ETFs
      • Latest ETF News
      • Fund Screener
      • Education Center
      • Equities
      • Fixed Income
      • Commodities
      • Actively Managed
      • Alternatives
      • ESG Rated
    • ESG
      • Latest ESG News
      • The Institutional Investor’s Guide to ESG Investing
      • ESG Sustainability - Gaining Momentum
      • ESG Investing | Industry Brief
      • Innovation in ESG Investing
      • ESG Rated ETFs
      • Divestment Database
    • Defined Contribution
      • Latest DC News
      • The Plan Sponsor's Guide to Retirement Income
      • DC Money Manager Rankings
      • DC Record Keeper Rankings
      • Innovations in DC
      • DC Plan Design: Improving Participant Outcomes
    • Searches & Hires
      • Latest Searches & Hires News
      • Searches & Hires Database
      • RFPs
    • Research Center
      • The P&I Research Center
      • Earnings Tracker
      • Endowment Returns Tracker
      • Corporate Pension Contribution Tracker
      • Pension Fund Returns Tracker
      • Pension Risk Transfer Database
    • Careers
    • Events
      • View All Conferences
      • View All Webinars
    • Print