Federal Reserve officials concluded earlier this month that the central bank should soon moderate the pace of interest-rate increases to mitigate risks of overtightening, signaling they were leaning toward downshifting to a 50-basis-point hike in December.
"A substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate," according to minutes from their Nov. 1-2 gathering released Wednesday in Washington.
In addition, while Chairman Jerome Powell said during his post-meeting press conference that rates will probably ultimately go higher than officials' September forecasts indicated, Wednesday's report gave a more nuanced take: "Various" officials — a descriptor not commonly used in the minutes — had concluded that rates would ultimately peak at a higher level than previously expected.
In another revelation, Fed staff told officials during the gathering that their assessment of the risks of a recession had grown to almost 50-50. That was the first such warning since the central bank began raising rates in March.
U.S. stocks and Treasuries rallied while the dollar fell following the report, as investors took a dovish message from the minutes.
"There is more of an acceptance that we will need to slow the pace" of rate increases, said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., adding that downshifting to a half-point move "is the predominant lean of Fed officials."
Investors expect the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points when they meet Dec. 13-14 and see rates peaking around 5% by mid-2023. Mr. Powell has a chance to influence those expectations in a speech in Washington scheduled for Nov. 30.
At the meeting, officials raised the benchmark rate 75 basis points for a fourth straight time to 3.75% to 4%, extending the most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s to combat inflation at a 40-year high.
Officials discussed the effects of lags in monetary policy and the effects on the economy and inflation, and how soon cumulative tightening would begin to impact spending and hiring. A number of Fed officials said a slower pace of rate increases would allow the central bankers to judge progress on their goals.
