The global growth outlook is improving amid ongoing geopolitical risk and inflation concerns, with a “developing economic mood … of cautious optimism” among chief economists.
The World Economic Forum’s May 2024 survey of global chief economists found that 17% expect conditions to worsen this year, compared with 56% in January.
“Uncertainty persists, but signs of brightening are reflected in the latest survey,” said a report about the survey. “The developing economic mood is one of cautious optimism.”
Geopolitics remains the top source of global economic volatility for the rest of the year according to 97% of respondents. Domestic politics are also set to be a source of volatility, cited by 83% of respondents.
Artificial intelligence was cited by one-third of chief economists as a potential source of volatility.
The U.S. improved the most in terms of being a region for growth, according to chief economists, with 97% expecting moderate or stronger growth in that economy this year, vs. 59% in the January survey.
All respondents expect at least moderate growth in South Asia and East Asia, and in the Pacific region this year. The outlook for China remains “muted,” the report said, with 75% expecting moderate growth this year, but only 4% expecting to see strong growth.
The European outlook is more pessimistic, with 66% forecasting weak growth in the region and zero expecting to see strong or very strong growth.
Regarding inflation, 63% expect moderate figures in the U.S., while 57% expect moderate inflation in Europe. China, the report said, is an outlier in terms of the presence of deflationary risks, with more than 80% of economists expecting low or very low inflation this year.
Economists were also asked what policymakers could do to boost growth in the next five years, with innovation, infrastructure development, education and skills development, and monetary policy cited as the most effective policy levers that could be pulled.
The Chief Economists Outlook is conducted among global chief economists across the public and private sectors, and is organized by the World Economic Forum's Centre for the New Economy and Society. The May report is available for download on the WEF website.
