Investors brace for a new cold war that will 'last our careers'
Skip to main content
pilogo-NEW
Subscribe
  • Subscribe
  • My Account
  • login
  • NEWS
    • Asset owners and the coronavirus
    • Alternatives
    • Consultants
    • Coronavirus
    • Defined Contribution
    • ESG
    • Frontlines
    • Hedge Funds
    • Investing / Portfolio Strategies
    • Money Management
    • Pension Funds
    • People Moves
    • Private Equity
    • Real Estate
    • Searches & Hires News
    • SECURE Act
    • Special Reports
    • WorldPensionSummit
    • Ron Schmitz
      Pandemic drives faster transition for Virginia to private markets
      Mubadala Investment Co. logo
      Mubadala draws on portfolio in coronavirus fight
      T.J. Carlson
      Texas Muni reduces downside risk during pandemic, finding opportunities now
      Scott Davis
      ‘Triage plan’ at Indiana system helped stem losses
    • Blackstone assets increase 6% for quarter, 8% for year
      Jeffrey Epstein and Leon Black
      Apollo Global CEO Leon Black to retire after Epstein review
      Coller Capital collects $9 billion with latest secondaries fund
      Directional signs respresenting types of traditional and alternative investments
      Setter: Alternative secondary deals drop 27.7% in 2020
    • Bill Foley
      Foley-backed SPAC agrees to $7.3 billion deal with Alight
      Jason Schwarz, chief operating officer of Wilshire,
      New owners have big plans for future of Wilshire
      Amy Hsiang
      Meketa picks new public markets manager research director
      Will Martindale
      Cardano Group chooses group head of sustainability
    • World economic growth ‘a race between a mutating virus and vaccinations’ – IMF
      Fred DeSerio
      Commentary: A new era for manager due diligence
      CalSTRS participant retirements jump in second half of 2020
      COVID-19 hinders emerging Europe's hopes for DC boost
    • Signage outside the Blackstone Group Inc. headquarters in New York on July 13, 2019
      Blackstone to sell Alight to SPAC in $7.3 billion deal
      Jan Jacobson
      High-court ruling thwarts ERISA stock-drop lawsuits
      Joni Tibbetts
      Principal counts on advisers to get word out on PEPs
      Kenneth J. Munro III
      Empower names new national sales director
    • Indhira Arrington
      Ares Management adds chief diversity officer
      U.K. to require large plans to align climate-change reporting with task force standards
      BlackRock’s Fink urges others to join in net-zero commitment
      Global business leaders commit to stakeholder metrics
    • Gifford Fong
      Old ties help bring local version of JOIM to mainland China
      Ryan Tedder
      Strike up the band: KKR fund takes majority stake in Ryan Tedder catalog
      Helen Dean
      NEST’s Helen Dean earns U.K. recognition for service
      Hawk's Nest dam
      Brookfield donates golf course for firefighter training center
    • Gabe Plotkin, chief investment officer and portfolio manager of Melvin Capital Management, speaks during the Sohn Investment Conference in New York on May 6, 2019
      Citadel, Point72 back Melvin with $2.75 billion after losses
      Shanghai skyline
      Global hedge funds struggle even in a more open China market
      The Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. logo is displayed on the Sun Hung Kai Centre building in Hong Kong on Sept. 13, 2018
      SHK spins out East Point Asset Management
      Man holding a business card with Hedge Fund written on it
      Hedge funds chalk up decade’s best returns in 2020 – HFR
    • Blackstone assets increase 6% for quarter, 8% for year
      New Jersey discloses up to $475 million in commitments
      San Mateo fund revises asset allocation
      A case of Tootsie Roll Industries Inc. Pops Halloween candy is pictured before being distributed to stores at the Associated Wholesale Grocers distribution warehouse in Goodlettsville, Tenn., on Aug. 14, 2015
      Tootsie Roll gets the GameStop treatment
    • Technology Crossover Ventures raises $4 billion for latest fund
      The Bank underground station in the square mile financial district of the City of London
      U.K. seeks input on boosting its allure to money managers
      River and Mercantile chooses head of infrastructure
      Leon Black, chairman and chief executive officer of Apollo Global Management at the annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, Calif., on April 27, 2015
      Black hangs on at Apollo as Epstein links cost him CEO role
    • New Jersey Division of Investment chooses deputy director
      San Mateo fund revises asset allocation
      Chicago Park Employees names new executive director
      Wisconsin state fund racks up 15.2% annual return
    • New Jersey Division of Investment chooses deputy director
      Chicago Park Employees names new executive director
      Credit Suisse brings on head of origination for direct lending
      Indhira Arrington
      Ares Management adds chief diversity officer
    • Pension funds continue private equity investing spree
      Big jump in private equity AUM expected over next 5 years
      Thoma Bravo takes in $22.8 billion for 3 funds
      Jason Thomas
      Data, technology become new prized possessions
    • Ingrid Jacobs
      Jones Lang LaSalle brings on head of diversity and inclusion
      EQT inks deal to buy real estate manager
      Chiang Ling Ng
      Hines hires first head of Asia-Pacific real estate investments
      Brand new apartment building on sunny day in spring with blooming trees
      Real estate returns forecast to trend lower – report
    • Neal and Brady
      Retirement security could be only issue both sides accept
      Retirement cartoon
      Hopes rising for retirement readiness in 2021
      Shawn O'Brien
      Annuities coming to target-date funds, but not right away
      David Ireland
      Sponsors returning to questions about in-plan annuities
    • Retirement in emerging markets
      Outlook 2021
      The top 10 stories of 2020
      The best places to work in money management
    • U.S. still a key market for investors
      Collected coverage of P&I's 2020 WorldPensionSummit
      Pedestrians pass a large advertisement on the Arndale Center shopping mall reading 'Act now to avoid a local lockdown' in Manchester, England
      COVID-19 puts new opportunities and risks on the agenda - WPS panelists
      Screens display stock price information over the trading floor of the NYSE Euronext exchange in Paris
      Private assets will continue to grow in portfolios – WPS panelists
  • Data
    • Research Center
    • Searches & Hires Database
    • Searches & Hires News
    • RFPs
    • Charts / Infographics
    • Sponsored Research
    • Trackers
    • Q2 2020 searches and hires overview report
      Q2 2020 money manager M&A activity summary
      Q2 2020 legal overview report
      Q1 2020 searches and hires overview report
    • New Jersey discloses up to $475 million in commitments
      Minnesota State Colleges seeks record keeper for 3 DC plans
      New York State Teachers assigns $375 million to 3 buyout funds
      GPIF hires Hamilton Lane for global private equity fund-of-funds allocation
    • New Jersey discloses up to $475 million in commitments
      Minnesota State Colleges seeks record keeper for 3 DC plans
      New York State Teachers assigns $375 million to 3 buyout funds
      GPIF hires Hamilton Lane for global private equity fund-of-funds allocation
    • Co-Administration, Financial Advisory, Transfer Agent, and Custodial Services
      Maryland State Retirement and Pension System
      Master Custodian and Related Services
      Transition Management Services
    • Taiwan Semiconductor’s No. 1 in the emerging markets book
      U.S. fixed-income returns post another positive year
      Nasdaq delivers an impressive year
      U.S. dollar's recent decline continues
    • Institutional Investors: Shared Expectations, Divergent Paths
      Global Investor Study 2016
      Workplace Financial Wellness
    • U.S. Endowment Returns Tracker
      Pension Fund Returns Tracker
      Earnings Tracker
      Corporate Pension Contribution Tracker
  • Insights
    • Opinion
    • White Papers
    • Industry Voices
    • Letters to the Editor
    • Partner Content
    • Publisher's Update
    • Infrastructure cartoon
      You must go big on infrastructure, Mr. President
      Retirement cartoon
      Hopes rising for retirement readiness in 2021
      view gallery
      25 photos
      2020 in editorial Cartoons
      view gallery
      25 photos
      Cartoons depict a year like no other
    • GP-LED OPPORTUNITIES AT THE SMALLER END OF THE MARKET
      Gold Outlook 2021
      Bond ETFs show maturity during Covid market mayhem
      2021 Outlook: A rousing recovery
    • Fred DeSerio
      Commentary: A new era for manager due diligence
      Charles E.F. MIllard
      Commentary: It’s time to make 401(k) plans into real pension plans
      Michael McNally
      Commentary: New ‘investment-plus’ test poses risks to private equity investors
      Adam Waterous
      Commentary: Institutions urged to act now on opportunities created by current global oil disruption
    • Writer using a typewriter
      OCIO industry needs to adopt GIPS
      Writer or journalist workplace. stock illustration
      Even as it assails China, Trump administration emulates it
      Skeptical of Main Street support for proxy adviser proposal
      Focus on manager diversity pushes asset owners’ to walk the talk
    • Sponsored Content By MassMutual
      Leveraging Data to Manage Risk
      Sponsored Content By iShares
      ETFs are becoming a cornerstone of insurance equity portfolios
      Sponsored Content By Aberdeen Standard Investments
      Taking a passive approach to the hedge-fund universe
      Sponsored Content By World Gold Council
      Gold: the most effective commodity investment
    • Help us help you by supporting quality journalism
      You Must Believe in Spring
      Everything Must Change
      Tomatoes & Investments
  • Multimedia
    • Videos
    • Webinars
    • Polls
    • Slideshows
    • Charts / Infographics
    • watch video
      1:33
      A look at hiring activity in 2020
      watch video
      1:24
      U.S. stocks were 2020’s comeback kid
      watch video
      1:23
      Outlook 2021
      watch video
      1:52
      Buy gold's pullback?
    • Getting Back to Normal: How to Creatively Manage Fixed Income Portfolios in a Rising Rate Environment
      Lessons From 2020: OCIO Model Passes Major Test of Governance
      The Institutionalization of Retail Part 3: Building a Successful Distribution Effort
      What might a Biden DOL and SEC mean for retirement plans?
    • POLL: The Biden administration’s economic plans
      POLL: Retirement issues in 2021
      POLL: Money managers' priority in Asia-Pacific region
      POLL: Retirement issues in the presidential election
    • view gallery
      9 photos
      Coronavirus and the markets
      view gallery
      22 photos
      The 1,000 largest retirement funds: 2020
      view gallery
      10 photos
      Outlook 2020
      view gallery
      10 photos
      2019 as seen through the eyes of Roger
    • By the Numbers for January 2021
      Graphic: A look at hiring activity in 2020
      Riskwatch for Q4 2020
      Taiwan Semiconductor’s No. 1 in the emerging markets book
  • Events
    • Conferences
    • Webinars
    • Defined Contribution Spring Virtual Series
      DC Investment Lineup Virtual Series
      ESG Investing Virtual Series
      Private Markets Virtual Series
    • Getting Back to Normal: How to Creatively Manage Fixed Income Portfolios in a Rising Rate Environment
      Lessons From 2020: OCIO Model Passes Major Test of Governance
      The Institutionalization of Retail Part 3: Building a Successful Distribution Effort
      What might a Biden DOL and SEC mean for retirement plans?
  • Careers
  • Research Center
MENU
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. INVESTING
May 30, 2019 01:00 AM

Investors brace for a new cold war that will 'last our careers'

Bloomberg
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Reprints Print
    Getty Images/iStockphoto

    Ray Dalio calls it a "long ideological war." Mark Mobius sees little hope for a quick resolution. And Stephen Jen says we're witnessing the start of a 15-round fight.

    As the U.S. and China clash over everything from trade to technology, some of the biggest names in investing are bracing for a protracted superpower conflict and adjusting their portfolios accordingly. Mobius, for instance, is avoiding shares of Chinese exporters and buying companies that sell to domestic consumers.

    "This contest will be a drawn-out process that will likely last our careers," said Mr. Jen, a former economist at the International Monetary Fund and Morgan Stanley who now runs Eurizon SLJ Capital, a hedge fund and advisory firm. "We as investors and analysts need to pace ourselves, and try to not just follow the latest news. We need to understand the economics and the cultural differences."

    Bets on an easing of tensions that helped propel stocks toward record highs just four weeks ago are quickly unwinding.

    Global equities lost $4 trillion of value this month, while U.S. Treasury yields plunged to the lowest level since 2017 as Donald Trump's administration raised tariffs on Chinese goods and slapped Huawei Technologies Co. with potentially devastating supply curbs. Xi Jinping responded by calling on his compatriots to join a "new Long March" and Beijing geared up to weaponize its dominance of rare earths — key ingredients in smartphones and electric cars.

    For Mr. Dalio, billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, the conflict goes well beyond a trade war. As China emerges as a world power capable of challenging the U.S., the countries will clash in "all sorts of ways" because of different approaches to government, business and geopolitics, he wrote in a series of posts on LinkedIn this month that didn't mention his investments.

    "They can't negotiate these more fundamental issues," wrote Mr. Dalio, whose firm oversees about $160 billion and has offices in Westport, Conn., and Shanghai.

    Even if Messrs. Trump and Xi manage to hammer out a trade deal (they're expected to meet at the G20 summit in June), China and the U.S. will keep clashing over issues like technology for the foreseeable future, according to Mr. Mobius.

    'New game'

    "We're in a new game — Trump has really opened this can of worms," added Mr. Mobius, the emerging markets veteran who left Templeton Asset Management last year to co-found Mobius Capital Partners. He flagged India, Vietnam and Bangladesh as potential beneficiaries as the conflict spurs manufacturers to diversify away from China.

    Kyle Shin of Gen2 Partners, who manages about $1.3 billion in hedge funds, returned from a recent China trip convinced that the conflict will take decades to resolve. As Chinese bonds in his portfolio mature, Mr. Shin is replacing them with high-grade corporate debt in developed markets, he said in a phone interview. The Hong Kong-based manager's flagship fund has posted midsingle-digit returns this year after gaining 20% in 2018.

    Kingsmead Asset Management's John Foo has gone even further, selling all his holdings of Chinese stocks for the first time in his two-decade career managing money in Asia. He offloaded the shares in mid-2018 because of the trade war and tightening credit conditions.

    Mr. Foo has since turned the Kingsmead Asian Alpha Opportunities Fund into a multistrategy hedge fund focused on economies along the Mekong river, such as Thailand and Vietnam. Southeast Asian countries, which have a long history of working with both the U.S. and China, stand to benefit as supply chains shift, Mr. Foo said.

    Not everyone anticipates dramatic changes to the status quo. James Gorman, Morgan Stanley CEO, said in an interview that he doesn't expect a full-blown trade war, even as he cautioned that it will take decades for the countries to sort out all their issues. Eurizon SLJ's Mr. Jen sees 80% odds that the conflict will eventually end peacefully.

    Risky assets

    Some traders view recent losses in risky assets as opportunities to buy. Yunqi Capital, a Hong Kong-based hedge fund that manages $130 million, increased its position in Rogers Corp. in December, and again this month, after shares of the U.S. maker of specialty components tumbled.

    The company, which makes printed circuit board laminates used in mobile phone base stations and other specialty components, is an indirect supplier to Huawei and ZTE Corp., another Chinese telecommunications powerhouse that has faced scrutiny from the Trump administration. Chris Wang, Yunqi's founder, is betting that global demand for Rogers products will remain robust despite the U.S.-China conflict.

    Meanwhile, hopes for progress on trade haven't completely vanished. Andy Rothman, a former U.S. diplomat in Beijing who's now an investment strategist at Matthews Asia, is optimistic that Mr. Trump will strike a deal before the 2020 presidential election. "I continue to believe that Trump believes a China trade deal is better than no deal for his re-election prospects," he said.

    That view helped underpin global share prices for the first four months of this year, but market action in recent weeks suggests skepticism is mounting. Mr. Trump himself said Monday that he's not ready to make a deal and that tariffs on Chinese goods "could go up very, very substantially."

    It's never certain whether the real estate developer-turned-politician will follow through on his threats, but Gen2's Mr. Shin isn't taking any chances.

    "It might be a good time to sell in May and go away," he said. "We don't want to take risk in 2019."

    Related Articles
    Trump tariff tweet roils mainland China stocks; other Asian markets prove resil…
    Trump's saber rattling over China trade sinks stocks
    U.S. tariffs on China goods bring short-term pain, possible long-term gain
    U.S. tariffs on China goods bring short-term pain, possible long-term gain
    Managers 'well-hedged but not positioned for breakdown in trade talks' – BofA
    Commentary: Shining a light on shorts will improve market integrity, investor p…
    Recommended for You
    Tootsie Roll gets the GameStop treatment
    Tootsie Roll gets the GameStop treatment
    Global managers fail to meet U.K. cost transparency standards
    Global managers fail to meet U.K. cost transparency standards
    SPAC launches leap, but institutions are wary
    SPAC launches leap, but institutions are wary
    Research for Institutional Money Management
    Sponsored Content: Research for Institutional Money Management
    sponsored
    Events
     
     
    Sponsored
    White Papers
    GP-LED OPPORTUNITIES AT THE SMALLER END OF THE MARKET
    Gold Outlook 2021
    Bond ETFs show maturity during Covid market mayhem
    Global gold-backed ETFs: A popular gateway to the gold market
    2021 Outlook: A rousing recovery
    Climate change and emerging markets after Covid-19
    View More
    Sponsored Content
    Partner Content
    The Industrialization of ESG Investment
    For institutional investors, ETFs can make meeting liquidity needs easier
    Gold: the most effective commodity investment
    2021 Investment Outlook | Investing Beyond the Pandemic: A Reset for Portfolios
    Ten ways retirement plan professionals add value to plan sponsors
    Gold: an efficient hedge
    View More
    E-MAIL NEWSLETTERS

    Sign up and get the best of News delivered straight to your email inbox, free of charge. Choose your news – we will deliver.

    Subscribe Today

    Get access to the news, research and analysis of events affecting the retirement and institutional money management businesses from a worldwide network of reporters and editors.

    Subscribe
    Connect With Us
    • RSS
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • LinkedIn

    Our Mission

    To consistently deliver news, research and analysis to the executives who manage the flow of funds in the institutional investment market.

    pilogo-NEW
    About Us

    Main Office
    685 Third Avenue
    Tenth Floor
    New York, NY 10017-4036

    Chicago Office
    150 N. Michigan Ave.
    Chicago, IL 60601

    Contact Us

    Careers at Crain

    About Pensions & Investments

     

    Advertising
    • Media Kit
    • P&I Content Solutions
    • P&I Careers | Post a Job
    • Reprints & Permissions
    Resources
    • Subscribe
    • Newsletters
    • FAQ
    • P&I Research Center
    • Site map
    • Staff Directory
    Legal
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Request
    Pensions & Investments
    Copyright © 1996-2021. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • NEWS
      • Asset owners and the coronavirus
      • Alternatives
      • Consultants
      • Coronavirus
      • Defined Contribution
      • ESG
      • Frontlines
      • Hedge Funds
      • Investing / Portfolio Strategies
      • Money Management
      • Pension Funds
      • People Moves
      • Private Equity
      • Real Estate
      • Searches & Hires News
      • SECURE Act
      • Special Reports
      • WorldPensionSummit
    • Data
      • Research Center
      • Searches & Hires Database
      • Searches & Hires News
      • RFPs
      • Charts / Infographics
      • Sponsored Research
      • Trackers
    • Insights
      • Opinion
      • White Papers
      • Industry Voices
      • Letters to the Editor
      • Partner Content
      • Publisher's Update
    • Multimedia
      • Videos
      • Webinars
      • Polls
      • Slideshows
      • Charts / Infographics
    • Events
      • Conferences
      • Webinars
    • Careers
    • Research Center