Following up on our March 19 infographic on quant manager 361 Capital's analysis of outcome probabilities of the NCAA men's basketball tournament:
In the first round there were a total 12 upsets, or 37.5% occurred in the 32 games. All nine seeds were upset, and three of four seven seeds were upset. Seven of the teams seeded between 10 and 15, or 21.9%, won, one game more than the historical 18.75% success rate of those teams.
The favorite moved on to the next round in all but one game, where fifth-seeded Auburn defeated fourth-seeded Kansas.
In the tournament's third round, 38% of the lower-seeded teams advanced. Historically, 361 Capital found about a 25% occurrence of at least 50% upsets.
The Elite Eight had two upsets in its four games as Auburn continued its march, and true to its previous findings, at least one top-seeded team, Virginia, made it to the Final Four.