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2019 OUTLOOK

The most and least likely stories of 2019

Pensions & Investments asked money management executives to predict the most, and least, likely headline they'll see in the newspaper in 2019; their answers follow.

William J. Booth, managing director, co-chief investment officer at Epoch Investment Partners Inc.: Most: Equity markets have been choppy, but have still outperformed bond and credit markets. Least: The U.S. and China sign a comprehensive and enforceable trade deal that ensures reciprocity, shrinks the trade gap and guarantees IP protection.

Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management: Most: Recession chatter on the rise. Least: Bipartisanship carries the day.

Joseph V. Amato, chief investment officer — equity at Neuberger Berman Group LLC: Most: Fed pauses sooner than market expects. Least: Italy to leave eurozone.

Silvia Dall'Angelo, senior economist at Hermes Investment Management: Most: U.S./China trade and technological tensions rumble on. Least: Another stellar performance for the equity market.

Neil Dwane, global strategist at Allianz Global Investors: Most: Active fund managers prove their worth. Least: The U.K. rejoins the European Union.

Charles K. Bobrinskoy, vice chairman, head of investment group at Ariel Investments LLC: Most: The great rotation. Least: Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl.

David Riley, chief investment strategist at BlueBay Asset Management LLP: Most: Inflation takes off / Beware inflation. Least: Fed cuts interest rates.

Larry Hatheway, head of investment solutions unit and chief economist at GAM: Most: Portfolio construction matters more than anything. Least: Thanks for the bull market!

Pierre-Henri Flamand, CIO at Man GLG: Most: The end of the longest bull run. Least: CIO of Man GLG wins the Euromillions.

Richard Sega, global chief investment strategist at Conning Holdings Ltd.: Most: U.S. growth beats analyst expectations. Least: House Democrats agree with the Trump administration about anything.

Richard Benson, managing director, head of portfolio investments at Millennium Global Investments Ltd.: Most: U.S. equity market makes new highs. Least: Theresa May delivers EU/U.K. free trade deal.

Ryan Primmer, head of investment solutions at UBS Asset Management: Most: Has the tech bubble burst? Least: Trump heralds weapons and technology sharing agreement with China.

David Hoile, global head of asset research at Willis Towers Watson PLC: Most: Climate and other ESG risks grab attention of regulators. Least: Volatility at historic lows.

Seema Shah, global investment strategist at Principal Global Investors: Most: U.S. equities' downhill run continues. Least: Oil prices hit $100 per barrel.

Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Aberdeen Standard Investments: Most: Brexit happened and the world hardly noticed. Least: Donald Trump admits climate change is a problem.