November 29, 2016 12:00 AM

Oil-centric sovereign wealth funds

Little progress is expected to be made toward a deal to curb production at Wednesday's OPEC meeting in Vienna. A Goldman Sachs report puts the probability of an agreement being reached at 30% given recent activity in related options contracts, and further stated that should a deal not be reached, oil will stay near $45 per barrel into the summer of 2017.

Among the largest sovereign wealth funds, oil- and gas-related revenues account for just less than 57% of total assets, including four of the top five funds largest by assets, derive their assets from their energy industry. Norway's Government Pension Fund Global sits atop the list with $885 billion in assets. While Norway is not a member of OPEC, the fund will be directly impacted by the meeting results. The fund has been faced with budget shortfalls due to lower revenues and low investment returns; its oil production has approached five-year highs during 2016.

Among the OPEC consortium, the Persian Gulf states –Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE– make up more than half of total daily production, and might have to agree among themselves to cut production if oil prices are to find support.