Updated Fed rate probabilities

On the heels of last week's meetings in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen suggested an increase in the federal discount rate will come sooner rather than later. CME data tracking the probability of a rate increase show a 30% probability of a hike at the Sept. 21 meeting. The probability is up from the previous estimate of 18%, which held for much of the summer.

The data are compiled on a continual basis using 30-day Fed Fund futures prices to gauge market sentiments of where rates will be at the end of each meeting and assumes rates will be increased by 25 basis points each meeting.

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