Probability of FOMC rate changes

The data are compiled on a continuous basis using 30-day Fed Fund futures prices as a gauge of market sentiments concerning monetary policy and assumes rates will be increased by 25 basis points each meeting.

While the data still heavily favor that the FOMC will leave the discount rate unchanged after its Sept. 21 meeting, the overall positive August jobs report increased the probability of a rate increase by 9 percentage points in the hours following its release. Looking ahead, the likelihood of a rate hike before the end of the year increases to near 50/50.