The Seattle Seahawks should beat the spread and win Super Bowl XLIX on Feb. 1 in Glendale, Ariz., if Analytic Investors LLC has anything to say about it.
As of Jan. 23, the New England Patriots were 1½-point favorites to beat the Seahawks, but according to Matthew Robinson, portfolio analyst at Los Angeles-based Analytic, Seattle should come away with a win in a very close game, “by less than a field goal.”
In the firm's NFL Alpha rankings, the Seahawks' alpha this season was 10%, while New England's was 28%. Said Mr. Robinson: “The Patriots started the season pretty slow, whereas the Seahawks were favored to win in 15 of 16 (regular-season) games this year. It's hard to bet against that.”
Seattle was a 1-point underdog playing against the San Francisco 49ers on Thanksgiving night. The Seahawks won 19-3.
In the NFL playoffs, lower-alpha teams in the regular season are favored. Among playoff teams this season, the Baltimore Ravens had the lowest alpha score, at 3.5%, while the Dallas Cowboys had the highest, at 55.5%.
The Seahawks spoiled Analytic's Super Bowl forecast last year. The firm picked the Denver Broncos to beat the 2-point spread. Seattle won 43-8.