While some Illinois policymakers might look to other states such as Rhode Island or Michigan for advice on pension reform, those can be “apples to oranges comparisons,” said Ralph Martire, executive director of the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability, a non-profit advocacy group in Chicago.
Illinois, New York and Arizona's pension laws are “ironclad,” but not every state has those constitutional restrictions, Mr. Martire said.
Mr. Martire said Illinois' pension protection clause in the constitution is “explicit” and he expects Mr. Belz's ruling will be upheld.
The reform law decreased cost-of-living adjustments current and future retirees, capped pensionable salaries and raised retirement ages. It also increased employee contributions by one percentage point, created a defined contribution plan for a portion of employees and gave the state retirement systems authority to sue the state to compel it to make required pension contributions.
The law was scheduled to take effect June 1 but was put on hold by Mr. Belz until its legality was determined.
Mr. Martire added the law poses other issues aside from its constitutionality.
State contributions are reduced in the short-term as part of the law passed and raised to unaffordable levels farther down the road, he said.
State officials “bought themselves two or three years with another politically designed but fiscally impractical payment plan,” Mr. Martire said. “There has been very little fiscal reality in this discussion (and) a lot more political gerrymandering.”
Reamortizing the debt to a level dollar amount is a more affordable and constitutional approach, he said. If the state's $100 billion unfunded liability were paid off in $7 billion or $7.2 billion installments each year, the state's retirement systems could be 70% to 78% funded in 30 years and 100% funded in 43 years, he estimated.
“If you get to a rational lower level dollar payment amount ... it frees up tons of resources to invest in current services that back-loaded repayment won't pay up,” Mr. Martire said.
Following Mr. Belz's ruling, Fitch Ratings announced in a statement that it was maintaining its A- rating for Illinois because the benefits of pension reform had not yet been factored into the state's credit rating due to pending court challenges. Standard & Poor's also said in a statement that Illinois' A- rating would be maintained.
Acknowledging the state has other funding obligations, Mr. Msall said, “the state with the worst credit rating is in danger of further downgrade if it doesn't come up with a plan, not even just if (the pension law) is found unconstitutional, but what it will do with a budget that by Quinn's own admission underfunds obligation needs by half a billion dollars.”