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Private real estate return expectations rise more than 1 percentage point from prior quarter

The average forecast return for the NCREIF Property index in 2014 rose more than one percentage point from a quarter ago, according to The Pension Real Estate Association's latest consensus survey, released Tuesday.

Among the 22 firms participating in the survey this quarter, the average expected total return for the NCREIF Property index in 2014 was 10.6%, up from 9.5% among 24 firms responding to the Q2 survey.

Return expectations rose across all property types, with the largest increase among retail properties -- expected to return 12.2%, up from 10.5% last quarter. Forecast total returns for industrial properties in 2014 rose 1.3 percentage points, to 11.4%.

Long-term return expectations ticked up slightly -- the average forecast annualized return for the index between 2014 and 2018 was 8.4%, up from 8% a quarter ago.