RiskWatch provides recent data on volatility and correlation, the two components of risk, for U.S. and global equity and fixed-income markets. The equity data are derived from Axioma's medium-horizon fundamental risk model. The first set of tables is designed to capture U.S. industries, countries and currencies with the highest and lowest levels of volatility and how that component of risk has changed since the end of the prior quarter. The highest and lowest correlated countries within developed and emerging markets are also highlighted. Another chart illustrates how currency volatility has been a major driver of risk in multicountry benchmarks as well as a cause for concern in individual countries. The fixed-income data, detailed in the multiasset-class section, consist of government yields, investment-grade and subinvestment-grade spreads for the U.S. and eurozone as well as correlations between those asset classes. Data are as of March 31, 2014.
Predicted volatility by industry |
U.S. market |
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Marine | 21.2 | 1.8 | Biotechnology | 19.6 | 4.4 | Airlines | 18.5 | 1.6 | Household durables | 17.1 | -0.7 | Building products | 17.1 | 0.6 | Metals & mining | 16.6 | 0.6 | Automobiles | 16.6 | 0.4 | Construction materials | 15.8 | 1.5 | Energy equipment & svcs. | 15.7 | 1.0 | Office electronics | 15.2 | 2.0 |
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Tobacco | 11.4 | 1.3 | Household products | 11.7 | 0.7 | Food products | 11.9 | 0.8 | Independent power producers | 12.1 | 1.1 | Water utilities | 12.1 | 1.0 | Food & staples retailing | 12.2 | 1.2 | Health care providers & svcs. | 12.3 | 1.3 | Beverages | 12.4 | 0.9 | Thrifts & mortgage finance | 12.6 | 0.9 | Media | 12.7 | 1.3 |
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Index volatility |
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Predicted volatility by currency* |
Developed markets | |
Norwegian krone | 10.2 | -0.5 | New Zealand dollar | 9.6 | -0.6 | Swedish krona | 9.5 | -0.7 | Australian dollar | 8.6 | -0.1 | Japanese yen | 8.2 | -1.0 | Swiss franc | 7.1 | -0.4 | Canadian dollar | 6.4 | 0.6 | Euro | 6.1 | -0.4 | Danish krone | 6.1 | -0.4 | British pound | 5.9 | -0.5 |
| | Emerging markets** | |
South African rand | 11.1 | -0.6 | Turkish lira | 10.5 | 1.5 | Brazilian real | 10.2 | -0.4 | Hungarian forint | 10.0 | -0.6 | Indian rupee | 9.4 | -1.1 | Polish zloty | 9.1 | -0.9 | Mexican peso | 8.7 | -0.9 | Chilean peso | 8.4 | 1.1 | Russian ruble | 8.4 | 1.1 | Czech koruna | 7.8 | -0.9 |
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Predicted volatility by country* |
Developed markets |
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Greece | 28.0 | 0.9 | Ireland | 19.3 | -0.5 | Japan | 19.1 | 1.7 | Spain | 17.3 | 1.2 | Portugal | 17.0 | 0.8 |
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Canada | 10.5 | 0.9 | South Korea | 11.2 | 0.0 | New Zealand | 11.5 | 0.8 | Singapore | 12.0 | 0.5 | Norway | 12.5 | 0.6 |
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Emerging markets** |
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Egypt | 21.2 | -0.4 | Turkey | 20.9 | 0.4 | Thailand | 19.7 | -0.6 | U.A.E. | 19.1 | -0.4 | Russian Federation | 19.0 | 6.1 |
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Malaysia | 10.8 | -0.7 | Czech Republic | 11.1 | -0.1 | South Africa | 11.2 | 0.4 | Hungary | 11.6 | 0.6 | Taiwan | 12.7 | -0.4 |
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Country-country correlations** |
Developed markets |
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France | Germany | 0.69 | Spain | Italy | 0.68 | Germany | Netherlands | 0.67 | France | Belgium | 0.66 | France | Netherlands | 0.65 |
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U.S. | South Korea | -0.45 | U.S. | Singapore | -0.40 | Japan | Germany | -0.36 | U.S. | Japan | -0.34 | U.S. | Denmark | -0.33 |
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Emerging markets |
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Thailand | Indonesia | 0.40 | Czech Rep. | Poland | 0.34 | Czech Rep. | Hungary | 0.33 | Chile | Peru | 0.27 | Russian Fed. | Poland | 0.24 |
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China | India | -0.26 | India | Czech Rep. | -0.26 | China | South Africa | -0.23 | India | Poland | -0.23 | Brazil | Malaysia | -0.22 |
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Eastern European currency volatility |
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| Multiasset-class data |
Risk |
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U.S. T-Note 10-year (yield) | 2.73% | -30 | 0.77% | 0.02% | U.S. IG (spread) | 170 bps | -10 | 12.40% | 0.67% | U.S. HY (spread) | 371 bps | -8 | 19.86% | 2.30% | EUR Gov't 10-year (yield) | 1.57% | -37 | 0.55% | -0.01% | EUR IG (spread) | 131 bps | -18 | 21.23% | 0.23% | EUR HY (spread) | 255 bps | -52.0 | 15.57% | -0.96% |
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Asset-class correlations |
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U.S. T-Note 10-year (yield) | 1.00 | -0.24 | -0.36 | 0.57 | -0.16 | -0.15 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.10 | U.S. IG (spread) | | 1.00 | 0.71 | -0.19 | 0.29 | 0.43 | -0.22 | -0.18 | -0.32 | U.S. HY (spread) | | | 1.00 | -0.20 | 0.30 | 0.40 | -0.24 | -0.19 | -0.33 | EUR Gov't 10-year (yield) | | | | 1.00 | -0.23 | -0.24 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.09 | EUR IG (spread) | | | | | 1.00 | 0.60 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.33 | EUR HY (spread) | | | | | | 1.00 | -0.18 | -0.13 | -0.38 |
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Emerging markets sections include only countries in the FTSE Emerging Markets index. *Numeraire: U.S. dollar. **In excess of the global market. |
Source: Axioma |