Most traditional publicly traded money managers are expected to show improved asset inflows and profitability when they release their second-quarter earnings beginning later this month, although growth will vary based on asset mix, according to a new report from Jefferies & Co.
Among individual firms followed by Jefferies analysts, Affiliated Managers Group is “best positioned for growth in the current environment” with the most expected long-term inflows, according to the report, while Janus Capital Group is likely to have the largest long-term outflows, at an estimated $3.5 billion, spurred by retail withdrawals, according to the report by Jefferies analysts Daniel Fannon, Surinder Thind and Gerald O'Hara.
AMG is expected to see $8.25 billion in total net inflows for the quarter, of which $4.5 billion should come from institutions. Franklin Resources is forecast to have net long-term inflows of about $6.5 billion; Invesco, about $2 billion.
Long-term flows at BlackRock and T. Rowe Price should be relatively flat or up only slightly, the analysts predict.
Along with Janus, long-term net outflows are expected at Legg Mason, at $500 million.
Flows at all of the managers will be adversely affected by weaker aggregate flows in June because of concerns about commentary from the Federal Reserve, which caused Treasury yields to jump and led to “a broad exit from taxable bonds, active and ETF, and a further softening of equity flows,” the report said.
Average growth in earnings per share among the managers analyzed by Jefferies is expected to be 2.3%.