Sixty-two percent of institutional money managers surveyed by Northern Trust in December believe global inflation will rise over the next six months, an increase of 40 percentage points from September.
Also, 53% believe interest rates will rise over the next three months, up 33 percentage points from the previous quarter; and 55% expect global growth to accelerate over the next six months, up from 33%.
The 97 institutional money managers that were surveyed are used by manager-of-managers Northern Trust Global Advisors.
“In the fourth quarter, our managers expressed optimism that global markets are on solid footing and will perhaps continue their upward trajectory,” Chris Vella, global director of research at Northern Trust Global Advisors, said in a news release. “As we might expect, however, with growth comes the risk of increased inflationary pressure and the potential for rising interest rates. It appears that our managers have also sounded a note of caution around these two important measures.”
The largest shift in opinion on valuations was in emerging market equities, where 39% believe the segment is undervalued, compared with 59% who held that view in the previous quarter.
