Four economics professors are top contenders for the 2010 Nobel prize in economics, according to a prediction from Thomson Reuters, a data resource firm for business and other organizations and professions.
The Nobel Foundation on Oct. 11 plans to announce the winner of the 2010 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, according to the foundation.
Kevin M. Murphy, professor of economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and senior fellow, Hoover Institution, was named as a contender for “pioneering empirical research in social economics, including wage inequality and labor demand, unemployment, addiction, and the economic return on investment in medical research,” according to a statement about the predictions.
Alberto Alesina, professor of political economics at Harvard University, was named for “theoretical and empirical studies on the relationship between politics and macroeconomics, and specifically for research on politico-economic cycles.”
Named as possible joint winners were Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, professor of economics at Princeton University, and John H. Moore, professor of political economics at University of Edinburgh and professor of economics at the London School of Economics. Thomson Reuters cited them for their “formulation of the Kiyotaki-Moore model, which describes how small shocks to an economy may lead to a cycle of lower output resulting from a decline in collateral values that create a restrictive credit environment.”
The basis of the predictions is largely from quantitative data, used to screen candidates who typically rank among the top 0.1% of researchers, based on the number of citations of their published papers over the last two decades, the statement said.
Predicted winners are chosen “by assessing citation counts and the number of high-impact papers while identifying discoveries or themes that may be considered worthy of recognition by the Nobel committee,” David Pendlebury, citation analyst, research services, Thomson Reuters, said in the statement. “A strong correlation exists between citations in literature and peer esteem. Professional awards, like the Nobel prize, are a reflection of this peer esteem.”
Since it was begun in 1989, the methodology has correctly predicted in the same year the economics prize winner twice in 2002 and 2003, although it has predicted within a few years individuals who ultimately won the prize, according to its report on its results.