Buy the Colts and sell the Bears, researchers at Goldman Sachs suggested.
Based on analysis of 30 years of stock data, researchers in Goldman Sachs' portfolio strategy group found that the stocks of companies headquartered in the winning team's city outperform the S&P 500 index by 12 basis points on post-game Monday and 17 basis points in the following month. Companies in the city of the losing team underperformed the S&P 500, but less consistently. The research report, released today, said the Super Bowl syndrome can be explained by behavioral finance.
The Indianapolis Colts are favored over the Chicago Bears by 7 points in Super Bowl XLI, Goldman Sachs said in a news release, which means Indianapolis hometown favorites Eli Lilly & Co., Simon Property Group and WellPoint would benefit.
For contrarians who back Chicago, the Bears basket includes Aon Corp., Boeing Co., Tribune Co., Equity Office Properties, Exelon Corp., Northern Trust Corp., Peoples Energy and Sara Lee Corp. Taken another way, Goldman Sachs suggests in its research that Chicago-area companies might best be avoided until after the Ides of March.