"Terrorism is a declining phenomenon in its significance to the U.S.," Marvin Zonis, professor emeritus of business administration at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, said at the school's annual business forecast conference today. "I regret the extent we are spending tens of billions of dollars and inconveniencing people when terrorism has already been dealt with," said Mr. Zonis, principal of Marvin Zonis + Associates, an international risk consultant whose clients have included pension funds.
Joel M. Stern, managing partner and CEO of corporate consulting firm Stern Stewart & Co, predicted at the conference that the total return of the S&P 500 will be 12% in 2005, including a two-percentage-point dividend yield. He also predicted a 3.8% rise in real, or inflation-adjusted, GDP for 2005, a 2.6% rise in inflation and a 5% unemployment rate.
Randall S. Kroszner, economics professor at the university's business graduate school, predicted a rise of 3.9% in real GDP and 2.3% in inflation next year, and a 5.3% unemployment rate; he declined to forecast the stock market.
