HIGH HOPES: Cut assumptions, companies told
Skip to main content
pilogo-NEW
Subscribe
  • Subscribe
  • My Account
  • login
  • NEWS
    • Asset owners and the coronavirus
    • Alternatives
    • Consultants
    • Coronavirus
    • Defined Contribution
    • ESG
    • Frontlines
    • Hedge Funds
    • Investing / Portfolio Strategies
    • Money Management
    • Pension Funds
    • People Moves
    • Private Equity
    • Real Estate
    • Searches & Hires News
    • SECURE Act
    • Special Reports
    • WorldPensionSummit
    • Ron Schmitz
      Pandemic drives faster transition for Virginia to private markets
      Mubadala Investment Co. logo
      Mubadala draws on portfolio in coronavirus fight
      T.J. Carlson
      Texas Muni reduces downside risk during pandemic, finding opportunities now
      Scott Davis
      ‘Triage plan’ at Indiana system helped stem losses
    • Varagon Capital fills new business development role
      Fitch Group in deal to acquire CreditSights
      Credit managers’ outlook still gloomy but brightening – survey
      Digital Colony picks head of Europe capital formation
    • Will Martindale
      Cardano Group chooses group head of sustainability
      Meketa hires first chief marketing officer
      Nick Horsfall
      Redington names managing directors for investment consulting team
      Marsh & McLennan Agency sets sights on Compass Financial
    • New York State Common challenges Tyson’s dual-share stock structure
      Credit managers’ outlook still gloomy but brightening – survey
      Investors call for action on COVID-19-induced humanitarian crisis at sea
      U.S. jobs worker restaurant
      Job market slipped in December as virus surge hindered activity
    • Ascensus, Empower acquire Truist record-keeping business
      PCS Retirement acquires Alliance Benefit Group-Rocky Mountain
      Shawn O'Brien
      Annuities coming to target-date funds, but not right away
      David Ireland
      Sponsors returning to questions about in-plan annuities
    • New law requires MassPRIM to increase diversity of managers, consultants
      Impact investors getting savvier, more efficient – report
      SSGA alum named head of ESG at Mirova
      Aegon moves to cut carbon from workplace DC business
    • Blackstone holiday video
      Blackstone would like to show you how things are done around the office
      Galina Churkina
      Building research earns honor from Aquila Capital
      MacArthur Foundation invests in women’s safe housing fund
      CAIA’s expansion to online exams yields big results
    • The Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. logo is displayed on the Sun Hung Kai Centre building in Hong Kong on Sept. 13, 2018
      SHK spins out East Point Asset Management
      Man holding a business card with Hedge Fund written on it
      Hedge funds chalk up decade’s best returns in 2020 – HFR
      New hedge fund launches surpass liquidations in third quarter
      Michael Hintz
      CQS deal with spinoff team falls apart
    • New York State Common challenges Tyson’s dual-share stock structure
      A sign on the exterior of a Northern Trust Corp. branch in Chicago on July 13, 2017
      Northern Trust to cut 500 jobs
      Wells Fargo targets $8 billion in cuts
      Maine Public Employees boosts target to alternative credit
    • A sign on the exterior of a Northern Trust Corp. branch in Chicago on July 13, 2017
      Northern Trust to cut 500 jobs
      Wells Fargo targets $8 billion in cuts
      A sign at a China Telecom Corp. store in Shanghai on Jan. 6, 2021
      Managers make further divestments from sanctioned Chinese firms
      The Chinese flag flies in front of the Liaison Office of the Central People's Government in Hong Kong on May 22, 2020
      Standard Life Aberdeen JV to open mainland China pension insurance company
    • Maine Public Employees boosts target to alternative credit
      Los Angeles City Deferred Comp narrows list to 2 in manager search
      Connecticut pension fund CIO resigns
      Arizona State Retirement looking for CIO
    • Sharmila Chatterjee Kassam
      AIF Institute hires former Texas ERS deputy CIO as executive director
      Varagon Capital fills new business development role
      SSGA alum named head of ESG at Mirova
      Capital Group hires BlackRock executive to launch ETF unit
    • Pension funds continue private equity investing spree
      Big jump in private equity AUM expected over next 5 years
      Thoma Bravo takes in $22.8 billion for 3 funds
      Jason Thomas
      Data, technology become new prized possessions
    • Ivanhoe Cambridge Inc. signage is displayed outside the company's office near Bay Street in Toronto on Aug. 29, 2011
      Ivanhoe Cambridge, PAG announce joint venture for Japan logistics investments
      Residential buildings in Hong Kong on Feb. 20, 2020
      KKR closes first Asia-Pacific real estate fund at $1.7 billion
      CPPIB in deal with Greystar to develop U.S. housing
      Global real estate investments to hit $79 billion in 2021 – survey
    • Neal and Brady
      Retirement security could be only issue both sides accept
      Retirement cartoon
      Hopes rising for retirement readiness in 2021
      Shawn O'Brien
      Annuities coming to target-date funds, but not right away
      David Ireland
      Sponsors returning to questions about in-plan annuities
    • Outlook 2021
      The top 10 stories of 2020
      The best places to work in money management
      Investment consultants
    • U.S. still a key market for investors
      Collected coverage of P&I's 2020 WorldPensionSummit
      Pedestrians pass a large advertisement on the Arndale Center shopping mall reading 'Act now to avoid a local lockdown' in Manchester, England
      COVID-19 puts new opportunities and risks on the agenda - WPS panelists
      Screens display stock price information over the trading floor of the NYSE Euronext exchange in Paris
      Private assets will continue to grow in portfolios – WPS panelists
  • Data
    • Research Center
    • Searches & Hires Database
    • Searches & Hires News
    • RFPs
    • Charts / Infographics
    • Sponsored Research
    • Trackers
    • Q2 2020 searches and hires overview report
      Q2 2020 money manager M&A activity summary
      Q2 2020 legal overview report
      Q1 2020 searches and hires overview report
    • San Jose Federated commits $11 million to real estate fund
      Essex Pension Fund on the lookout for private debt manager
      Lexington Contributory wants large-cap equity manager
      Fort Lauderdale fund scouting for large-cap manager
    • San Jose Federated commits $11 million to real estate fund
      Essex Pension Fund on the lookout for private debt manager
      Lexington Contributory wants large-cap equity manager
      Fort Lauderdale fund scouting for large-cap manager
    • International Small Cap Manager Services
      Financial Expertise
      Passive Index Manager Services
      Emerging Markets Equity Investment Management Services
    • U.S. fixed-income returns post another positive year
      Nasdaq delivers an impressive year
      U.S. dollar's recent decline continues
      Hedge funds warming up to financial sector, remain long U.S. equities
    • Institutional Investors: Shared Expectations, Divergent Paths
      Global Investor Study 2016
      Workplace Financial Wellness
    • U.S. Endowment Returns Tracker
      Pension Fund Returns Tracker
      Earnings Tracker
      Corporate Pension Contribution Tracker
  • Insights
    • Opinion
    • White Papers
    • Industry Voices
    • Letters to the Editor
    • Partner Content
    • Publisher's Update
    • Retirement cartoon
      Hopes rising for retirement readiness in 2021
      view gallery
      25 photos
      2020 in editorial Cartoons
      view gallery
      25 photos
      Cartoons depict a year like no other
      Consultants cartoon
      Seeking an investment consultant? Caveat emptor
    • Climate change and emerging markets after Covid-19
      An Asset Owner's Guide to Multi-Manager Portfolio Management
      Research for Institutional Money Management
      The Future of the U.S. Dollar - Dominant currency or one of many?
    • Michael McNally
      Commentary: New ‘investment-plus’ test poses risks to private equity investors
      Adam Waterous
      Commentary: Institutions urged to act now on opportunities created by current global oil disruption
      Ron Lagnado
      Commentary: Straw man critiques don’t hold up in face of real world success
      Robert Raben
      Commentary: What the asset management industry must do to bolster diversity
    • Writer using a typewriter
      OCIO industry needs to adopt GIPS
      Writer or journalist workplace. stock illustration
      Even as it assails China, Trump administration emulates it
      Skeptical of Main Street support for proxy adviser proposal
      Focus on manager diversity pushes asset owners’ to walk the talk
    • Sponsored Content By iShares
      ETFs are becoming a cornerstone of insurance equity portfolios
      Sponsored Content By Aberdeen Standard Investments
      Taking a passive approach to the hedge-fund universe
      Sponsored Content By World Gold Council
      Gold: the most effective commodity investment
      Sponsored Content By Moody's Analytics
      The Industrialization of ESG Investment
    • Help us help you by supporting quality journalism
      You Must Believe in Spring
      Everything Must Change
      Tomatoes & Investments
  • Multimedia
    • Videos
    • Webinars
    • Polls
    • Slideshows
    • Charts / Infographics
    • watch video
      1:24
      U.S. stocks were 2020’s comeback kid
      watch video
      1:23
      Outlook 2021
      watch video
      1:52
      Buy gold's pullback?
      Coronavirus and the S&P 500: 2020
    • Getting Back to Normal: How to Creatively Manage Fixed Income Portfolios in a Rising Rate Environment
      What might a Biden DOL and SEC mean for retirement plans?
      Staying on target with target-date funds
      The Institutionalization of Retail Part Two: A Webinar Series from P&I Content Solutions and Chestnut Advisory Group
    • POLL: Retirement issues in 2021
      POLL: Money managers' priority in Asia-Pacific region
      POLL: Retirement issues in the presidential election
      POLL: The S&P 500 in the third quarter
    • view gallery
      9 photos
      Coronavirus and the markets
      view gallery
      22 photos
      The 1,000 largest retirement funds: 2020
      view gallery
      10 photos
      Outlook 2020
      view gallery
      10 photos
      2019 as seen through the eyes of Roger
    • Graphic: U.S. stocks were 2020's comeback kid
      U.S. fixed-income returns post another positive year
      By the Numbers
  • Events
    • Conferences
    • Webinars
    • Defined Contribution Spring Virtual Series
      DC Investment Lineup Virtual Series
      ESG Investing Virtual Series
      Private Markets Virtual Series
    • Getting Back to Normal: How to Creatively Manage Fixed Income Portfolios in a Rising Rate Environment
      What might a Biden DOL and SEC mean for retirement plans?
      Staying on target with target-date funds
      The Institutionalization of Retail Part Two: A Webinar Series from P&I Content Solutions and Chestnut Advisory Group
  • Careers
  • Research Center
MENU
Breadcrumb
  1. Home
  2. Print
August 07, 2000 01:00 AM

HIGH HOPES: Cut assumptions, companies told

Counting on pension fund returns to boost the firm's bottom line is risky, experts say

Vineeta Anand
  • Tweet
  • Share
  • Share
  • Email
  • More
    Reprints Print

    Some pension experts are beginning to urge plan sponsors to lower their pension funds' return assumptions.

    They suggest dropping the assumptions to as low as 6%, down more than three percentage points from the 9.17% large companies assumed, on average, last year, according to Watson Wyatt Worldwide.

    Several big corporations used return assumptions of 10% or higher: PPG Industries Inc., 10.9%; Atlantic Richfield Co., now part of BP Amoco, 10.5%; and American General Corp., 10.35%.

    Many large companies have been counting on pension assets to prop up their bottom lines, but if the returns don't materialize, those bottom lines could sag, and their stock prices could sink if disappointed investors bail out.

    Plus, the companies themselves might need to rework their calculations of surplus pension assets, and be forced to make unanticipated contributions to their pension funds.

    The culprit is the stock market.

    "I'm finding that more of the sophisticated pension funds understand that equity returns going forward are not going to be as high as historical" returns, said Michael Peskin, an actuary and the head of asset-liability analysis at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., New York.

    "No matter how you push and pull the numbers, you can't get a real return as high as the returns assumed by actuaries," warned Robert D. Arnott, president and chief executive officer of First Quadrant LP, a Pasadena, Calif.-based money manager.

    Typically, the return assumptions are at least one or two percentage points too high, Mr. Arnott said.

    Keith Ambachtsheer, president of K.P.A. Advisory Services Ltd., a Toronto-based pension research and consulting firm, said a diversified equity portfolio can be expected to return only 5% a year these days.

    Mr. Ambachtsheer assumes a 1.5% dividend yield, 3% inflation-adjusted growth in earnings and a 0.5% contribution from stock buybacks. Assuming inflation to be around 3%, companies can realistically expect to earn no more than 8% on their pension assets over the long haul, he said.

    Accounting rules require companies to start with the interest rate on long-term government bonds when they set pension assumptions, and then overlay the returns they expect from equities, in proportion to their allocation.

    Assuming a 6% interest rate on Treasury securities and a 6% equity premium, a company with 50% of its pension fund assets in stocks should assume no more than a 9% return, said Jeremy Gold, a New York-based consulting actuary.

    But in fairness to future generations of investors, Mr. Gold would assume only the return from risk-free securities, or about 6%.

    "I do not think it is good finance to anticipate risky returns in advance of the risk being taken. To do so is to provide greater income to present shareholders, and leave future shareholders with the risk," he said.

    But the problem is that many companies are arriving at their assumptions by looking at the 15%, 20% or 25% returns they earned on their pension assets in the past five years, instead of looking ahead.

    "Companies that are using a 10.5% or 11% assumption are booking profits that are arguably not going to be there," Mr. Ambachtsheer said.

    Others disagree.

    Companies "are not using too high a rate by everything I can see. If they never earned more than 5% or 6%, you'd say a 9% or 10% (assumption) would be hokey," said Jack Ciesielski, president of R.G. Associates Inc., a Baltimore-based investment research firm.

    Bill Miner, the retirement practice leader in the Chicago office of Watson Wyatt, concurred: "For the past four or five years you have had returns in excess of 20% and you don't see 20% return assumptions out there. I don't believe the assumptions are unduly recognizing the bull market."

    To be sure, even if the stock market tanks and investment earnings on pension assets plummet, it could still be a few years before the impact shows up on a company's bottom line. In fact, it was precisely because of the fear of the volatility in pension expense or earnings that accounting rules let companies assume a long-term rate of expected return, rather than using actual returns on their pension assets.

    Moreover, many companies protect their bottom lines by applying the return assumption not on the actual market value of their pension assets, but on to a portion of the assets, usually about 85%, giving themselves a 15% cushion, so a drop in the stock market would not show up in a company's bottom line overnight.

    "Smoothing is the prevalent practice," said Adam J. Reese, a consulting actuary in the Arlington, Va., office of Towers Perrin.

    PPG computes its expected long-term return on pension assets by examining historical returns and anticipated future changes in the pension fund's investment portfolio.

    "The weighted average long-term rate of 10.9% at the end of the year was justified on that basis," said a company spokesman. PPG's pension fund has earned in excess of 11% on its pension fund assets during the latest one-, six-and 10-year periods, he noted.

    American General raised its assumption a notch last year to 10.35% from 10.25% the previous year. But that reflects its pension fund's slightly higher target allocation to equities -- to 75% of total assets from 71%, said Nicholas R. Rasmussen, chief financial officer.

    Pension assets matching its liabilities are split between equities and fixed income while surplus pension assets are invested solely in equities, he said.

    The company continues to be bullish about the prospects for stocks. "We made the decision that they are not going to be lower. It's as simple as that," Mr. Rasmussen said.

    Recommended for You
    Read the print edition of P&I
    Read the print edition of P&I
    Targeting millennials: Author, niece put his latest book to music
    Targeting millennials: Author, niece put his latest book to music
    How low is low? Projections say it's not low enough
    How low is low? Projections say it's not low enough
    Research for Institutional Money Management
    Sponsored Content: Research for Institutional Money Management
    sponsored
    Events
     
     
    Sponsored
    White Papers
    Climate change and emerging markets after Covid-19
    An Asset Owner's Guide to Multi-Manager Portfolio Management
    Research for Institutional Money Management
    Bond ETFs show maturity during Covid market mayhem
    Global gold-backed ETFs: A popular gateway to the gold market
    The Future of the U.S. Dollar - Dominant currency or one of many?
    View More
    Sponsored Content
    Partner Content
    The Industrialization of ESG Investment
    For institutional investors, ETFs can make meeting liquidity needs easier
    Gold: the most effective commodity investment
    2021 Investment Outlook | Investing Beyond the Pandemic: A Reset for Portfolios
    Ten ways retirement plan professionals add value to plan sponsors
    Gold: an efficient hedge
    View More
    E-MAIL NEWSLETTERS

    Sign up and get the best of News delivered straight to your email inbox, free of charge. Choose your news – we will deliver.

    Subscribe Today

    Get access to the news, research and analysis of events affecting the retirement and institutional money management businesses from a worldwide network of reporters and editors.

    Subscribe
    Connect With Us
    • RSS
    • Twitter
    • Facebook
    • LinkedIn

    Our Mission

    To consistently deliver news, research and analysis to the executives who manage the flow of funds in the institutional investment market.

    pilogo-NEW
    About Us

    Main Office
    685 Third Avenue
    Tenth Floor
    New York, NY 10017-4036

    Chicago Office
    150 N. Michigan Ave.
    Chicago, IL 60601

    Contact Us

    Careers at Crain

    About Pensions & Investments

     

    Advertising
    • Media Kit
    • P&I Content Solutions
    • P&I Careers | Post a Job
    • Reprints & Permissions
    Resources
    • Subscribe
    • Newsletters
    • FAQ
    • P&I Research Center
    • Site map
    • Staff Directory
    Legal
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms and Conditions
    • Privacy Request
    Pensions & Investments
    Copyright © 1996-2021. Crain Communications, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
    • NEWS
      • Asset owners and the coronavirus
      • Alternatives
      • Consultants
      • Coronavirus
      • Defined Contribution
      • ESG
      • Frontlines
      • Hedge Funds
      • Investing / Portfolio Strategies
      • Money Management
      • Pension Funds
      • People Moves
      • Private Equity
      • Real Estate
      • Searches & Hires News
      • SECURE Act
      • Special Reports
      • WorldPensionSummit
    • Data
      • Research Center
      • Searches & Hires Database
      • Searches & Hires News
      • RFPs
      • Charts / Infographics
      • Sponsored Research
      • Trackers
    • Insights
      • Opinion
      • White Papers
      • Industry Voices
      • Letters to the Editor
      • Partner Content
      • Publisher's Update
    • Multimedia
      • Videos
      • Webinars
      • Polls
      • Slideshows
      • Charts / Infographics
    • Events
      • Conferences
      • Webinars
    • Careers
    • Research Center