Time, says investment manager William G. Spears, is an oft-overlooked element of investment management.
His firm - Spears Benzak Salomon & Farrell, New York - uses a rolling two-year perspective in its forecasts for securities markets and individual companies. He says shorter periods emphasize trading, while longer periods make it hard to foresee probable patterns of events clearly enough to make sound, analytical judgments.
The firm, which has about $2.7 billion under management, is value oriented, concentrating on out-of-favor sectors and companies. Such an approach doesn't exclude growth, because the valuation premium accorded to growth frequently is reasonable, he says.
These days, Mr. Spears, chairman of the firm, likes financial intermediaries. And, he doesn't think higher interest rates will adversely affect earnings for certain banks and insurance companies.
Among his picks: American International Group Inc., J.P. Morgan & Co. Inc., General Reinsurance Corp., Sallie Mae, Shawmut National Corp., UNUM, Deposit Guaranty Corp. and Key Corp.