Alternatives managers bearish on future fundraising – survey

Alternatives investment managers are bearish on future fundraising, results of a Setter Capital survey reveal.

The survey, which the secondary market broker conducted in April with 72 fund managers, said managers expect fundraising in 2020 to decrease by 18.5% from the record level raised in 2019. The survey was conducted "to ascertain the likely effects the coronavirus pandemic will have on private market fund investors and managers," the introduction said.

Debt-related fund managers were optimistic, expecting fundraising to increase by 5%. However, venture capital managers believe it will decrease by 29.1%.

Distributions are expected to fall 34.3% over the three quarters, as compared with the preceding nine months. Venture capital fund managers were again most bearish, as they estimated distributions would drop by 43.5%. Debt-related fund managers believe they will drop by only 22.5%.

Most respondents (69%) expect the public markets will retest March lows sometime in the next six months. Respondents also predicted that the public markets, would be down 12.6% at the end of 2020 from the year earlier.

On average, managers felt capital calls would not change much in the coming nine months, as they estimated a 0.7% decrease vs. the prior nine months. Meanwhile, debt-related fund managers were the exception, as they expect capital calls on average to increase by 20%.

When asked what percentage of capital calls will be used to support existing portfolios vs. making new investments, 35% of all capital calls over the next nine months are expected to be used to support existing portfolio holdings and the balance to make new investments.

While this is the average across all strategies, venture capital managers expect 48.9% of capital calls would be used to support existing holdings, while buyout funds expect that figure to be 28.7%.

Ultimately, survey respondents expect net asset values in the first quarter to be down 9.5% on average from the fourth quarter of 2019, and second quarter NAVs to be down 12.6% on average compared with Q4.