With Baltimore winning the Super Bowl 34-31, Matthew Robinson could be excused for deciding to quant the Ravens ever more.
The portfolio analyst at quantitative manager Analytic Investors and author of an annual NFL Alphas study, which reflects the performance of National Football League teams relative to their expected value over a season, picked the Ravens to beat the 4½-point spread over the favored San Francisco 49ers. He had said in a report last week that the 49ers' alpha of 23.1% likely led bettors to overestimate their probability of victory vs. the 2.3% alpha of the Ravens.
The choice of the Ravens makes this nine of the previous 10 Super Bowls that the Analytic analysis correctly picked the undervalued team to beat the spread, with the only outright loss being last year when the New York Giants beat Mr. Robinson's pick, the New England Patriots, 21-17. In three of the years, the team chosen lost the game but still beat the spread.
As for the best Super Bowl ad, Mr. Robinson said, there's no formula for that — yet. “Let me get back to my computer and I'll get back to you,” he said.