U.S. economy expanding at less than half the pace of six previous recoveries
The U.S. economy continues to grow at a lackluster pace. Indeed, since Q3 2009, when the recovery started, through Q3 2012, real gross domestic product is up just 7.2%, weaker than all of the previous six recoveries, which had an average gain of 15.8% over the comparable 13-quarter period. Real consumer spending is up 7.4% during the current recovery, also weaker than the previous six and well below their average gain of 14.5%.
The negative spin on this subpar growth from the bear camp is that it's very close to stall speed. So they've been predicting a double-dip recession ever since the bull market started in March 2009. Now they are licking their chops about the fiscal cliff, which will certainly cause a recession, if it isn't averted.
I have spotted a few soft patches in the economy during the latest recovery, but insisted that GDP would continue to grow. Now I am predicting a second recovery for the U.S. in 2013, led by housing and autos. I see lots of pent-up demand that could boost growth next year. I think this could happen no matter who wins the presidential election next Tuesday.
Source: Ed Yardeni — Ed Yardeni is the president and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research Inc., a provider of independent investment strategy and economics research for institutional investors.
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